By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill: May 24, 2024

Former President Donald Trump knows from the real estate business the three words that most affect property values: “location, location, and location.”

As the presumptive Republican presidential nominee ponders selecting a new running mate, he also knows the impact of “loyalty, loyalty, and loyalty,” believing that on Jan. 6, 2021, his “disloyal” former vice president thwarted his grandiose plans for retaining power.

While Trump does not explicitly state “loyalty” as a prerequisite, vice presidential wannabees subliminally hear the word replayed on MAGA megaphones and act accordingly, lured by the opportunity to be one heartbeat away from the presidency behind an overweight, high-strung man who turns 78 on June 14.   

Thus, ambitious vice presidential “shortlist” candidates are deaf to the warnings of Mike Pence, Trump’s once uber-loyal vice president. Notably, on August 1, 2023, when Trump was indicted for allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election, Pence said, “President Trump demanded that I choose between him and the Constitution. I chose the Constitution, and I always will.”

In March, Pence announced that he would not endorse Trump for president, which some consider a historic snub.

Prior to Jan. 6, Pence had demonstrated unflinching loyalty to Trump, his administration, and the two presidential campaigns. With that “except” in mind, however, it now appears Trump is trying to “Pence-proof” the vice presidency with loyalists who, if confronted with a Jan. 6-type crisis, might even choose Trump over the Constitution.

Below, ranked in order of “Pence-proof” loyalty, are Trump’s four most likely running mates.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.): Age 39 (40 in July)

If loyalty is Trump’s number one criterion, then Stefanik belongs at the top of his list. She is the headline-grabbing, third-ranked House Republican and, since 2021, has chaired the House Republican Conference. Stefanik personifies Trump-loyalty, endorsing him for president a week before Trump even made his official announcement on Nov. 15, 2022.

In February, she aced the Pence-proof loyalty test. During a CNN interview, when asked about Jan. 6, 2021, Stefanik said, “I would not have done what Mike Pence did. I don’t think that was the right approach.”

Proving Stefanik is a contestant in a league of her own, last Sunday in Jerusalem, she addressed the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. When she forcefully denounced President Biden’s policy of withholding heavy weapons if Israel invaded Rafah in Gaza, the White House blasted her back.

From Israel, Stefanik made more Trump-pleasing headlines appearing on “Fox News Sunday.” In a testy exchange, she pushed back against host Shannon Bream’s questions about documented statements by Stefanik herself from 2016, criticizing Trump’s treatment of women after the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape had been released.

Stefanik is a legal attack dog. This week, she filed an ethics complaint against Judge Juan Merchan, who is presiding over Trump’s “hush money” case in Manhattan. Similarly, she filed complaints against Special Prosecutor Jack Smith and Judge Arthur Engoron, who had presided over Trump’s civil fraud trial.

Trump had said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he liked “the concept” of a female running mate and called Stefanik “a killer” at a Mar-a-Lago dinner.

Since the Harvard-educated Stefanik has the loyalty chops and guts to be Trump’s running mate, she is well-positioned for a debate fight with Vice President Kamala Harris.

VP assessment: A young, bold choice that could attract suburban women voters.

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio): Age 39 (40 in August)

Vance owes his seat to the former president, which guarantees his loyalty.

In return, and as a shortlist contender, Vance played the Pence-proof veep card this month on CNN, when he questioned the well-documented physical danger that Pence experienced on Jan. 6, when rioters at the Capitol called for his hanging. “I’m truly skeptical that Mike Pence’s life was ever in danger. I think politics and political people like to really exaggerate things from time to time.” Music to Trump’s ears.

Vance is trying hard to break his 2016 “double album of disloyalty” — he had once told a roommate that Trump “might be America’s Hitler,” and at one point tweeted of Trump, “My god, what an idiot.” Nonetheless, the prospect of presidential power trumps all, and Vance’s new tune, “I was wrong about him,” debuted May 12 on CNN’s “State of the Union.” The next day, Vance appeared at Trump’s hush money trial, earning extra loyalty points.

VP assessment: A high-risk, low-reward, boring choice that does not enhance Trump’s ticket.

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.): Age 58

Scott, who oozes loyalty and love for Trump, appears high on the vice presidential shortlist. During his own failed 2024 presidential primary campaign, the Black conservative senator never criticized Trump and called the former president’s fourth indictment “un-American.”

The love-fest really began after Scott dropped out and endorsed Trump on January 19. At Trump’s New Hampshire primary victory speech, he asked Scott why the senator supported him over former Gov. Nikki Haley (R), who had appointed Scott to fill a Senate vacancy in 2012. Scott’s retort to Trump: “I just love you.”

This month, Scott displayed Pence-proof loyalty cred during an awkward argumentative interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” When host Kristen Welker continually pressed the senator about accepting the 2024 presidential election results, he refused to give a straight answer — ensuring a top seed on Trump’s shortlist and perhaps a historic-looking vice presidential match against Kamala Harris.

VP assessment: Another bold choice that could appeal to African American voters in swing states.

Gov. Doug Burgum (R): Age 67

The two-term North Dakota governor is this year’s political breakout star. Not only is Burgum a self-made multi-millionaire who could write campaign checks, but while campaigning with Trump, a “bro-connection” has developed. Showing loyalty, Burgum attended and spoke outside Trump’s hush money trial.

The governor has received good press as a normal, earnest man with a central-casting look that appeals to Trump. On the downside, in 2016, Burgum bashed Trump, and his Pence-proof loyalty levels remain unproven.

A transactional White House relationship and, at the very least, a cabinet post is expected based on mutual respect.

VP assessment: Overall, a low-risk but low-reward choice. A mature, wealthy, intelligent business “buddy” who might boost the ticket as a “national insurance policy” in the worst-case scenario.

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.TAGS 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DONALD TRUMP DOUG BURGUM ELISE STEFANIK ELISE STEFANIK J.D. VANCE MIKE PENCE TIM SCOTT

By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill – April 26, 2024

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was riding high after his landslide reelection, when the New York Post’s front page declared him “DeFuture” of the Republican Party. He was crowned a national star on a trajectory to battle Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination.

That didn’t quite work out for him. But now, forming on the Florida horizon are all the dramatic elements of another epic showdown between himself and Trump — this time to rule the Sunshine State and its Magic Kingdom after his second term has ended.

Last week, the stage was set for this possibility by an eye-popping Florida Atlantic University poll showing that 38 percent of registered Republican voters in Florida would choose Casey DeSantis, Ron’s wife, as their nominee.

If Casey were to declare herself a candidate for the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nomination of the nation’s third-most populous state, it could lead directly to a second major confrontation with Trump-world.

In the same poll, another 16 percent selected Trump acolyte Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) — the media firebrand famous for ousting House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Gaetz wrote on X in February, “I have no plans to run for governor.” But if Trump encourages Gaetz to run, the congressman will likely bow to Trump’s wishes, especially since DeSantis and Gaetz have long been at odds despite being allies initially when DeSantis was elected governor in 2018.

With the governor’s race two and a half years away, FAU only polled a Casey DeSantis-Matt Gaetz primary matchup, with 20 percent indicating they would choose some other candidate. Other notable potential GOP contenders are Attorney General Ashley Moody and Team Trumper Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.).

Another important finding from FAU’s poll is DeSantis’s 54 percent job approval among Florida voters. Apparently,  “Ron Desanctimonious” has more than adequately recovered from the national humiliation that Trump dealt him in the presidential campaign.

If DeSantis remains popular into 2025, then wife Casey could be well positioned to win his “third term” in a state that has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994.

It isn’t as crazy as it sounds. Casey was his closest adviser and greatest asset on the presidential campaign trail. Her Emmy-award-winning television career facilitated her easy-going, relatable stage presence and polished showmanship. She contrasted with her husband’s awkward, rigid, and widely mocked policy-wonk personality.

Mrs. DeSantis also received sympathy for surviving a fight with breast cancer. She is the mother of three young children and known for her elegant fashion flair, reminiscent of Jackie Kennedy. And Casey was a dedicated wife who stood by her man as their stage crashed and burned.

Casey and Ron’s first mistake in the presidential race was to underestimate Trump’s strength and resilience among primary voters. In June 2022, the Washington Post reported, “The couple believes that the governor’s skills are uniquely matched to the current political climate and are wary of waiting six years” to run for president in 2028, “by which time the tides may have shifted.” Instead, the tides nearly drowned them both.

But candidates can often learn from failure and emerge as future winners. Ron and Casey could follow that pattern with a 2026 gubernatorial race, a 2028 presidential run, or both. But first, they must defuse, neutralize, and successfully cross a Trumpian minefield without taking permanent damage.

With the Republican presidential nominee exercising total control over the Republican Party at all levels, Trump’s 2024 fate will heavily affect the DeSantises’ future. It begins when he anoints a running mate. Whether Trump wins or loses, that person will have the inside track for the Republicans’ 2028 presidential nomination if he or she performs well and stays in Trump’s good graces.In the near term, that scenario would seem to leave Ron’s presidential prospects melting like an orange popsicle in the Florida sun.

But another set of circumstances could keep DeSantis from the unemployment line in January 2027. What if Trump wins the White House and taps Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) for his Cabinet? In that case, DeSantis could appoint a “caretaker” to Rubio’s seat and run for it himself the subsequent special election to serve out the remainder of Rubio’s term. Conceivably, Ron and Casey DeSantis could appear on the same 2026 ballot — a political power-couple achievement.

Anything is possible, but don’t forget that Trump has a long memory and lingering animosity toward Ron and Casey. Even though DeSantis’s best showing was third place in Iowa, and he dropped out before the New Hampshire primary, Trump was still furious that he had the gall to run against him at all.

The former president repeatedly bragged that he “made” DeSantis’s career, warned the governor against entering the 2024 race, and boasted about destroying DeSantis for the “disloyalty” of daring to be his primary rival.

Trump’s anger stemmed from his primary endorsement of the obscure congressman from northeast Florida, which he first gave in December 2017. DeSantis, who had trailed initially after announcing his candidacy, flogged the endorsement to anyone who would listen and gained his first polling lead shortly after that. Trump subsequently reiterated that endorsement in June 2018, to much greater public notice, at which point DeSantis immediately surged to a consistent polling lead and never looked back until he had won the nomination in a 20-point landslide.

Future-former President Trump therefore believes, and not without reason, that he has the power to derail Ron and Casey’s political DeFuture. 

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.TAGS CASEY DESANTIS RON DESANTIS

By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill – March 29, 2024

Four criminally charged or convicted men pardoned by then-President Trump now orbit his 2024 presidential campaign — exercising their gravitational pull for his victorious reelection. Of the four, Steve Bannon was dramatically granted clemency hours before Trump left office on Jan. 21, 2021, while Roger Stone and Paul Manafort received Christmas gift pardons on December 23, 2020. Retired Army Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn was pardoned a month earlier.

“Orbiting” means they are not officially on Trump’s reelection team. However, Steve Bannon, Roger Stone and Michael Flynn have a prodigious influence on Donald Trump, his campaign and ardent supporters.

And then a surprise news report heralded the re-emergence of the internationally scandalous Paul Manafort. Allegedly, Trump’s disgraced first 2016 campaign manager is poised for a “potential role” at the July Republican National Convention and as a fundraiser for Trump’s cash-strapped campaign.

With Trump’s cult-like MAGA voters wearing “Make America Great Again” and “Save America Again” caps — a bold, lawless image enhances the ability of these pardoned men to galvanize voter support and serve their legally challenged master.

The combative communication styles of Bannon, Stone and Flynn mirror Trump’s outrageous claims of victimhood. He was “robbed” of his 2020 victory, and he is fighting a “weaponized” Justice Department aiming to destroy him — and them, at least until they were graciously pardoned.

Let’s briefly examine each man’s influence on Team Trump and their impact on his third presidential campaign.

Stephen K. Bannon is the most powerful of the pardon four-pack, “Bannon is the intellectual ringleader of the MAGA circus,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) has proclaimed. Proving the point is Bannon’s fiery 2024 CPAC speech. Then, for MAGA street cred, “Bannon seems to have been deeply enmeshed in the planning of the disruption of the peaceful transfer of power and the seizing of the presidency for Donald Trump,” Raskin explained as a member of the January 6 House Committee.

First, a little history: In mid-August 2016, when Trump’s presidential campaign was floundering under Manafort’s disjointed leadership, Bannon was named “campaign chief executive.” After Trump’s shocking victory, Bannon served for seven months as “chief White House strategist” until his combative, headline-generating exit in August 2017.

In August 2020, Bannon and three associates were indicted for defrauding crowdfunding donors who had contributed $25 million to their “We Build the Wall” campaign — the federal charge that Trump commuted on his last day in office. New York state charges were later filed in 2022.

Although Bannon is embroiled in multiple pending legal matters and facing prison, his highly ranked “War Room” podcast makes him a media powerhouse. He has successfully filled the red-meat media gap left by Rush Limbaugh’s death, and his “angry warrior” MAGA brand has left traditional conservativism in the dust.

“War Room” is the go-to misinformation destination for Trump acolytes such as Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.). Encouraged by Bannon’s bombastic master communicator skills, elected members can vent about their enemies and invent conspiracy theories to enhance fundraising while currying favor with Trump.

If Trump wins in 2024, the War Room should be credited for pumping up and turning out Trump’s MAGA army that Bannon’s “deconstructing the administrative state” ideological underpinnings helped birth and grow into a significant political movement.

Roger Stone is a political mastermind infamously known for “dirty tricks,” either real or imagined. Stone’s volatile relationship with Trump began in the 1980s when he was businessman Trump’s first political adviser. Roger’s book, “The Making of the President 2016,” chronicles his role in Trump’s historic upset over Hillary Clinton. If graphed, the Trump-Stone relationship would have sharp peaks and deep valleys but with a continuous brotherly connection.

In July 2020, Stone was sentenced after being convicted of witness tampering, obstruction and lying to Congress about 2016 campaign-related activity. He was hours away from reporting to a federal corrections facility when Trump commuted his sentence and then pardoned him in December 2020. Ever since, at GOP events, Stone has received rock star treatment.

This week, I asked Stone about his status with Team Trump. He replied, “I have, and I seek no formal or informal role in the presidential campaign. I remain a strong supporter of the president, and I speak to him as well as members of his campaign team regarding political matters occasionally. Those conversations remain confidential.”

Stone said that his various radio shows (where he promotes Trump) keep him “more than busy.” Then he added, “If you look at every one of these stories, my alleged [campaign] involvement is simply based on the fact that I have ‘been seen at Mar-a-Lago recently’ — what a crock of s***.”

Truthfully, Trump and Stone will always have each other’s backs — the source of Stone’s influence — which he intentionally underplays, despite having Trump on speed dial.

Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn served as Trump’s first national security adviser. He was in office for only 22 days before the ambush. Flynn was convicted of lying to the FBI about Russian interference in the 2016 presidential campaign, for which Trump pardoned him. He was entangled in more international legal problems subsequently.

In Trump world, Flynn is an emissary, a folk hero, a victim, a man-of-God, and someone who engaged in Jan. 6 related events. He juices up the Christian-nationalist election-denying wing of the GOP. Nonetheless, the general’s influence is dwarfed by that of Trump sergeants Bannon and Stone.

But that could change on April 5, when Flynn begins his national movie tour for “Flynn: Deliver the Truth. Whatever the Cost.” Will Flynn’s “Truth” movie justify his advising Trump to deploy the military to rerun the 2020 election and seize voting machines? Perhaps, along with the popcorn, Flynn will sell Trump’s “God Bless the USA Bibles” so that God can help Trump win and in turn restore Flynn to the White House.

Finally, there’s Paul Manafort. Today, his MAGA influence is zero. But his stock will rise if Trump’s high command hires him as some anticipate, and he performs successfully. Manafort’s rap sheet is marked with old-fashioned greed gone amok, which included hiding $55 million in foreign bank accounts, filing false tax returns, defrauding banks and milking pro-Russian Ukrainian clients — crimes worthy of Trump pardons.

As Trump’s campaign heats up, watch these loyal men earn their pardons.

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008. TAGS DONALD TRUMP MICHAEL FLYNN PAUL MANAFORT ROGER STONE  STEVE BANNON 

By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill March 15, 2024

The Capitol riot of Jan. 6, 2021, presents a yes-or-no question for November’s ballot. Are you willing to forget, ignore or justify the Capitol riot that caused $2.8 million in damage and injured 140 police officers?

According to Fox News, the intruders “defecated in the hallways” and “stomped in their own feces” in their mission to keep President Trump in office by stopping the Electoral College’s certification and disrupting the peaceful transfer of power.

If you choose to rationalize such mayhem, then pray for your nation and continue to vote for Donald Trump. But if you are undecided, be aware that the former president is supported by a Christian nationalist movement that had strong ties to the Jan. 6 perpetrators — the jailed ones he calls “hostages,” whom he will free if elected.

There is no single agreed-upon definition of Christian nationalism. Some erroneously define it as the mere acknowledgment, contained in our Declaration of Independence, that all rights come from God. A more sensible definition that evinces a true threat to the republic would include the belief that America is a Christian nation whose divine destiny must be preserved, even if that entails open rebellion against lawful constitutional authority.

This belief flies in the face of traditional Christian teaching, going back to the words of Jesus and Saint Paul’s epistles, requiring obedience to just laws — including, for example, tax laws, election laws and laws against pillaging public buildings.

Christian nationalism is also antithetical to our founding documents. The First Amendment’s Establishment Clause not only protects religion from state interference, but also protects individual Americans from state enforcement of religious orthodoxy. Christian nationalists, in contrast to our nation’s founders, would condone the latter.

Since 2021, and primarily among Trump’s white evangelical supporters, Christian Nationalism has experienced mainstream growth and acceptability as a viable political movement embedded within the Republican Party. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, only 10 percent of Americans consider themselves Christian nationalists, but another 20 percent sympathize with the idea.

It is common to hear Trump’s most ardent supporters claim that “he’s anointed by God.” And Trump, although his own religiosity is dubious, has hardly discouraged the idea that he is God’s special creation, even circulating his own Trumpian version of Paul Harvey’s homage to farmers.

His supporters’ religious fervor puts real teeth into the presumptive nominee’s dark, authoritarian and apocalyptic campaign of revenge against those who, he insists, stole the 2020 election from him. And this, in turn, points back to Jan. 6, when Trump tried to overturn its result.

Among the testimony presented to the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6 attack, the Freedom from Religion Foundation’s Andrew Seidel described the overt and even ostentatious religiosity of at least some of the attackers. To be sure, one must consider the source — a group hostile toward religious belief. But what Seidel describes can be seen on video by anyone.

“The attackers were not shy about declaring their motivations,” Seidel said in his written testimony. “They held Bibles aloft, prayed in the Senate, carried Christian flags, and openly confessed to their motivations on video. The many disparate identities and ideologies visible during the attack were united under a banner of Christian nationalism, which created the permission structure necessary for Americans to attack their own government.”

Did Trump help create that “permission structure” to rebel against the United States? And would he do it again? All signs point to yes — especially his new litmus test for a vice presidential pick, to choose only someone who would not have done what Mike Pence did on Jan. 6 in fulfilling his constitutional and legal duty to certify Joe Biden’s victory.

Trump has never been known as a Christian, but he knows how to harness the fervor of the victorious warriors who waved Bibles from atop the Senate dais on Jan. 6, shouting, “Jesus Christ, we invoke your name!” He casts the current election in dark, apocalyptic terms as a quasi-spiritual battle in speeches like the one he gave March 4 in Richmond, calling 2024 “our final battle.”

“With you at my side,” Trump said, “we will demolish the deep state. We will expel the warmongers from our government. We will drive out the globalists, we will cast out the communists, Marxists, and fascists, and we will throw off the sick political class that hates our country. We will rout the fake news media, we will drain the swamp, and we will liberate our country from these tyrants and villains once and for all.”

It should come as no surprise that this speech closely echoed the prayer offered inside the Senate chamber on Jan. 6 by the so-called Q-Anon Shaman, the infamous face-painted man wearing Viking horns during the riot: “Thank you for allowing us to get rid of the communists, the globalists, and the traitors within our government. We love you, and we thank you. In Christ’s holy name, we pray. Amen.”

At the National Religious Broadcasters Convention in Nashville, Trump framed the election not as a choice between two parties or two leaders, but as a battle between good (that is himself, of course) and wickedness.

“Remember,” he said, “every communist regime throughout history has tried to stamp out the churches, just like every fascist regime has tried to co-opt them and control them, and, in America, the radical left is trying to do both. They want to tear down crosses where they can and cover them up with social justice flags, but no one will be touching the cross of Christ under the Trump administration, I swear to you.”

America saw what happened on Jan. 6, 2021. Do we really want to go back there again?

My national and Christian prayer for Nov. 5 is, “God help us.”

Myra Adams writes about politics and religion. She served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.

TAGS 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CHRISTIAN NATIONALISM DONALD TRUMP JESUS CHRIST

By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill – March 1, 2024

A historic milestone will be reached in the 2024 election, likely to generate political power surges across the electoral landscape.

Demographic data and current trends analyzed by the Pew Research Center found that Latinos or Hispanics are “projected to account for 14.7 percent of all eligible voters in November 2024, a new high.” For the first time, Hispanic voters are expected to surpass Black voters as a percentage of the electorate, after each group comprised 13 percent of voters in the 2020 presidential election.

Exit polling results preserved by the Roper Center show how, over two decades, the Hispanic vote grew to equal the Black share of the electorate. In 2000, Hispanics accounted for 7 percent of voters, with Blacks at 10 percent. In Barack Obama’s 2008 election, the share of Black voters grew to 13 percent, whereas Hispanics expanded to 9 percent.

The 2016 Trump-versus-Clinton matchup saw Hispanics grow to 11 percent while Blacks dipped to 12 percent. Finally, in the 2020 election, Black and Hispanic voters tied at 13 percent each.

With the Black vote stagnating at about 13 percent since 2008, the growing Hispanic vote is now expected to meet and exceed it, becoming the nation’s second-largest voter group.

Shifting from voter percentages to numbers, in January 2024, Pew Research estimated that 36.2 million Hispanics are eligible to vote in 2024, up from 32.3 million in 2020. Astoundingly, those numbers represent 50 percent of the total growth of all eligible voters.

With such exponential growth, Hispanic voters take center stage in 2024. All eyes are on the fierce battleground state of Arizona, where they will account for nearly one in five voters. According to a recent Emerson College/The Hill poll, Donald Trump leads President Biden in Arizona 46 to 43 percent in a tough fight for the state’s 11 electoral votes, when in 2020, Biden eked out a surprise win by only 0.3 percent of just over 3.3 million votes.

Although Arizona ranks fifth among states with the largest Hispanic population — behind California, Texas, Florida, and New York — it is the only one where the outcome of the 2024 presidential election seems uncertain.

From a perspective well beyond the 2024 election, Hispanics are beginning to mirror emerging voter groups that changed American political history starting in the 20th century. The gender and racial composition of today’s elected leaders reflect the success of those movements.

Women were the first significant voter group to emerge after being granted the right to vote in all 50 states upon ratification of the 19th Constitutional Amendment in 1920. Fast forward 100 years to the 2020 presidential election, and women as a percentage of the electorate surpassed men (52 to 48 percent), as they have in every presidential election since 1984.

Black Americans were the second major voter group to emerge, facilitated by two legislative acts. First, the 24th Amendment, outlawing poll taxes, was ratified in 1964. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 soon followed. Both laws endeared the Democratic Party to Black voters, to which they have remained steadfastly loyal ever since.

The exit polling data show the astronomically high percentage of Black American support for Democratic presidential candidates, ranging from a low of 83 percent for Jimmy Carter in 1976 to a high of 95 percent for Barack Obama in 2008. It averages around 86 percent. Joe Biden won 87 percent of the Black vote in 2020, slightly lower than the 89 percent that Hillary Clinton had earned in 2016.

Donald Trump’s support from Black voters was 12 percent in 2020, a 4-point increase from 8 percent in 2016. Trump’s ability to win Black votes in battleground states will be something to watch for this year. Currently, Black voter support for Biden appears to be flagging and, potentially diminishing his chances of winning battleground states such as Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Although Black Americans have historically voted as a block, Hispanic loyalty to Democrats is far less certain. On average, they vote about 66 percent Democrat. In 2020, Trump improved his percentage with Hispanic voters, taking 32 percent, up from 28 percent in 2016.

The latest census data show Hispanics making up 19.1 percent of the population, compared to Blacks at 12.6 percent and non-Hispanic whites at 58.9 percent. Those percentages portend the dramatic national power balance shift now underway between Blacks and Hispanics, further complicated by the shrinking non-Hispanic white population. 

To the extent that a cohesive “Hispanic vote” exists, the 1 million young Hispanics turning 18 every year represents a steady stream of demographic voting power. Thus, a front-burner question for political strategists is how many of these young Hispanics plan to register and turn out to vote.

The second question is whether they will still vote 66 percent Democratic as in decades past, giving Democratic presidential candidates the margins on which they have depended. Alternatively, are they headed in the same direction as other formerly Democratic Catholic ethnic groups, who shifted dramatically toward Republicans in the late 20th century, leading to today’s evenly-split Catholic vote?

That’s for Republicans and Democrats to fight over this year, and well beyond the 2024 election.

Myra Adams writes about politics and religion. She served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.TAGS 2022 MIDTERMS 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DONALD TRUMP DONALD TRUMP JOE BIDEN PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN

By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill – Jan. 5, 2024

Former President Donald Trump enters 2024 leading his Republican rivals by a national poll average of 51 percentage points. However, Iowa influencers from Trump’s loyal base of evangelical voters have established goalposts also applicable to the general electorate, should Trump top the GOP ticket.  

The first “goalpost” was reported by Reuters in mid-December. Quoted while presiding over a Trump prayer circle, Brad Sherman, an Iowa state legislator and pastor, cried to God, “There is a great victory coming for this nation and the world because of the calling you’ve placed on this man.” Another devout Iowa voter exclaimed, “We believe that he’s anointed by God.”   

During this presidential season, long-time evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats finds himself at the opposite end of the Iowa playing field. A former leading Trump supporter, Vander Plaats, has “had enough” and now believes Trump “is not the leadership our country needs.” He predicts that “Iowa will rise up.” He earned Trump’s ire in November after endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

That one person could be perceived by some evangelicals as “anointed by God” and “called” to lead a “great victory,” and by others as “not the leadership our country needs,” indicates the very schism that makes Trump the most controversial, enigmatic, and influential national political figure of the 21st century. He leads a robust, growing nationalist movement far greater than the Republican Party, while proudly expressing dictatorial sentiments for his second term.

Evangelical voters are a valued part of Trump’s movement. In 2020, 84 percent of white evangelicals supported him, compared to 77 percent in 2016, according to Pew Research. 

Slightly lower, Gallup reported, 81 percent of white evangelical voters went for Trump, with Biden winning only 18 percent.  

Although this Trump-loyal group represents only 14.5 percent of the population, they turn out in force and wield an outsized influence, comprising 28 percent of the electorate in 2020. Furthermore, white evangelicals are disproportionately concentrated in the critical swing states of Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina. 

In those states, Trump could win a second term on the back of strong evangelical turnout, if he can only shave a few percentage points off Biden’s 18 percent support from that group. Meanwhile, with Democratic enthusiasm trending downward for President Biden among his party’s traditional voter groups, strong evangelical support would carry more weight in battleground states. 

Interestingly, in 2016, then-Indiana Gov. Mike Pence helped deliver the evangelical vote when tapped as Trump’s running mate. Trump cemented that loyalty by appointing three Supreme Court justices whose votes indirectly overturned Roe vs. Wade, the long-hated 1973 abortion rights ruling. 

Proving how strong political alliances can shift, Pence is now politically dead — rejected by his evangelical base and deemed an enemy of Trump for the events of Jan. 6, 2021. Worse, that base now rationalizes, downplays or just puts out of mind the cries that day of “Hang Mike Pence!” 

Usually, a hanging results in murder, and Bible-reading evangelicals know that “Thou shalt not kill” is one of the Ten Commandments. If you need a refresher, first-hand reporting appears in the Old Testament book of Exodus. Moses, who received the Ten Commandments from God, is represented both inside and outside the Supreme Court building, symbolizing how the commandments formed the basis of law governing Western civilization.

That poses a political and religious conundrum. Many evangelical voters believe that God is calling Trump to lead the nation. But at one time or another, Trump has disregarded most of the decalogue, often willfully. Here is a brief rundown. 

1. “You shall have no other gods before me”  

Critics argue that Trump’s ego-driven behavior, coupled with his apparent disregard for the Constitution, means he thinks of himself as god-like. Anti-Trump forces consider him a pseudo-messianic figure who operates above accepted norms of moral and legal behavior. On Capitol Hill, he has been called “Orange Jesus.” Unlike most humans, Trump is consistently never wrong, makes a point of never asking forgiveness, and can never lose. 

2. “You shall not make for yourself an idol”

Millions of Americans believe that Trump has fostered an idol-like cult of personality — a force to be worshipped. This is not completely an exaggeration — remember the gold Trump idol at CPAC? Initially, Trump built an empire based on his name brand. Now, he sells Trump digital trading cards and has morphed into a superhero idol.  

3. “You shall not take the name of the Lord your God in vain” 

Trump is known to use foul language and has at times crossed the line into blasphemy. Also reported is when Trump denigrated evangelical pastors for praying over him and called them “hustlers.” 

4. “Remember the Sabbath day, to keep it holy” 

Trump worships on the golf course. 

5. “Honor your father and mother” 

Trump has at least somewhat dishonored his father, Fred, whose hundreds of millions paid for him to become a “self-made” billionaire. 

6. “You shall not murder”   

Mike Pence was not hanged, so Trump gets a pass. 

7. “You shall not commit adultery” 

Trump’s numerous extramarital affairs are well documented, often through his own bragging. Two of his alleged affairs are still the subject of litigation. He was also found liable in civil court for sexual assault in May 2023. 

8. “You shall not steal”   

Trump tried but failed to steal the 2020 election. He will have his day in court for that one. 

9. “You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor”  

According to the Washington Post’s fact checkers, Trump made 30,573 false or misleading statements during his presidency. Even if the number is somewhat inflated by bogus fact-checks, the number of legitimate falsehoods he has told — including the lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him — is large even for a politician.

10. “You shall not covet”  

Trump covets power and authority. He will stop at nothing to get it and keep it. He attempted to overturn the 2020 election when his power was about to be legally terminated. Then, upon leaving office, Trump took hundreds of sensitive documents that belonged to the government.  

After holding Trump accountable against the Ten Commandments, evangelical voters must justify and rationalize the gap between God’s law and Trump’s mission to “make America great again.”

At Trump rallies, you often see evangelical supporters wearing hats or t-shirts proclaiming, “Jesus is my savior, Trump is my president.” On Election Day, these most passionate, devout voters will be in national prayer circles asking God to deliver.

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.TAGS 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BRAD SHERMAN DONALD TRUMP JAN. 6 CAPITOL RIOT MIKE PENCE TEN COMMANDMENTS