By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill – April 26, 2024

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was riding high after his landslide reelection, when the New York Post’s front page declared him “DeFuture” of the Republican Party. He was crowned a national star on a trajectory to battle Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination.

That didn’t quite work out for him. But now, forming on the Florida horizon are all the dramatic elements of another epic showdown between himself and Trump — this time to rule the Sunshine State and its Magic Kingdom after his second term has ended.

Last week, the stage was set for this possibility by an eye-popping Florida Atlantic University poll showing that 38 percent of registered Republican voters in Florida would choose Casey DeSantis, Ron’s wife, as their nominee.

If Casey were to declare herself a candidate for the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nomination of the nation’s third-most populous state, it could lead directly to a second major confrontation with Trump-world.

In the same poll, another 16 percent selected Trump acolyte Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) — the media firebrand famous for ousting House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Gaetz wrote on X in February, “I have no plans to run for governor.” But if Trump encourages Gaetz to run, the congressman will likely bow to Trump’s wishes, especially since DeSantis and Gaetz have long been at odds despite being allies initially when DeSantis was elected governor in 2018.

With the governor’s race two and a half years away, FAU only polled a Casey DeSantis-Matt Gaetz primary matchup, with 20 percent indicating they would choose some other candidate. Other notable potential GOP contenders are Attorney General Ashley Moody and Team Trumper Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.).

Another important finding from FAU’s poll is DeSantis’s 54 percent job approval among Florida voters. Apparently,  “Ron Desanctimonious” has more than adequately recovered from the national humiliation that Trump dealt him in the presidential campaign.

If DeSantis remains popular into 2025, then wife Casey could be well positioned to win his “third term” in a state that has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994.

It isn’t as crazy as it sounds. Casey was his closest adviser and greatest asset on the presidential campaign trail. Her Emmy-award-winning television career facilitated her easy-going, relatable stage presence and polished showmanship. She contrasted with her husband’s awkward, rigid, and widely mocked policy-wonk personality.

Mrs. DeSantis also received sympathy for surviving a fight with breast cancer. She is the mother of three young children and known for her elegant fashion flair, reminiscent of Jackie Kennedy. And Casey was a dedicated wife who stood by her man as their stage crashed and burned.

Casey and Ron’s first mistake in the presidential race was to underestimate Trump’s strength and resilience among primary voters. In June 2022, the Washington Post reported, “The couple believes that the governor’s skills are uniquely matched to the current political climate and are wary of waiting six years” to run for president in 2028, “by which time the tides may have shifted.” Instead, the tides nearly drowned them both.

But candidates can often learn from failure and emerge as future winners. Ron and Casey could follow that pattern with a 2026 gubernatorial race, a 2028 presidential run, or both. But first, they must defuse, neutralize, and successfully cross a Trumpian minefield without taking permanent damage.

With the Republican presidential nominee exercising total control over the Republican Party at all levels, Trump’s 2024 fate will heavily affect the DeSantises’ future. It begins when he anoints a running mate. Whether Trump wins or loses, that person will have the inside track for the Republicans’ 2028 presidential nomination if he or she performs well and stays in Trump’s good graces.In the near term, that scenario would seem to leave Ron’s presidential prospects melting like an orange popsicle in the Florida sun.

But another set of circumstances could keep DeSantis from the unemployment line in January 2027. What if Trump wins the White House and taps Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) for his Cabinet? In that case, DeSantis could appoint a “caretaker” to Rubio’s seat and run for it himself the subsequent special election to serve out the remainder of Rubio’s term. Conceivably, Ron and Casey DeSantis could appear on the same 2026 ballot — a political power-couple achievement.

Anything is possible, but don’t forget that Trump has a long memory and lingering animosity toward Ron and Casey. Even though DeSantis’s best showing was third place in Iowa, and he dropped out before the New Hampshire primary, Trump was still furious that he had the gall to run against him at all.

The former president repeatedly bragged that he “made” DeSantis’s career, warned the governor against entering the 2024 race, and boasted about destroying DeSantis for the “disloyalty” of daring to be his primary rival.

Trump’s anger stemmed from his primary endorsement of the obscure congressman from northeast Florida, which he first gave in December 2017. DeSantis, who had trailed initially after announcing his candidacy, flogged the endorsement to anyone who would listen and gained his first polling lead shortly after that. Trump subsequently reiterated that endorsement in June 2018, to much greater public notice, at which point DeSantis immediately surged to a consistent polling lead and never looked back until he had won the nomination in a 20-point landslide.

Future-former President Trump therefore believes, and not without reason, that he has the power to derail Ron and Casey’s political DeFuture. 

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.TAGS CASEY DESANTIS RON DESANTIS


By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill: April 12, 2024

Our intelligence services are consumed with battling a new “Axis of Evil.” The updated phrase, first coined in 2002, now refers to Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. This powerful authoritarian alliance is determined to meddle in elections, launch cyberattacks, destabilize and wage wars against America and its allied democracies around the world.

In this context, consider the likelihood that, starting next Jan. 20, sensitive secrets will be viewed by the most notorious national security risk living outside a federal penitentiary.

It sounds like a Hollywood script, but our spy services must contend with this real-life drama if Donald Trump is elected president once again.

President Biden’s campaign and those who served in Trump’s administration must convey to voters that Trump himself represents a national security risk with severe domestic and global ramifications. Even before November’s election, in mid-July 2024, after Trump is officially nominated at the Republican National Convention, he will be entitled to receive intelligence briefings that Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) hopes will be “dumbed down.” Schiff is reportedly “concerned about whether Trump could share the information.”

Intelligence agencies were always concerned and took necessary precautions during Trump’s presidency. “Officials were even more cautious about what information they provided Mr. Trump because some saw the president himself as a security risk,” the New York Times reported in 2022, quoting CIA counterintelligence official Douglas London.

That sentiment harkens back to January 2017, when an American intelligence official reportedly warned Israeli officials “that American intelligence agencies believed Russia had ‘leverages of pressure’ over President Donald Trump….The [American] official warned Israel to ‘be careful’ once Trump was inaugurated, adding that it was possible sensitive information shared with the White House and the National Security Council could be leaked to Russians.” Four months later, it actually happened.

If the election were held today, former President Trump would likely win. For the intel community, that means additional complications and distractions as they fight the Axis of Evil against threats that some believe Trump’s victory would accelerate.

This week, former CIA director John Brennan said that if elected, Trump “would give Vladimir Putin the green light to practically swallow Ukraine,” since Trump “can reduce or even stop financial and military aid to the government in Kyiv.” 

To date, Trump’s allies, such as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga), have effectively blocked Ukraine aid. Last month, after Hungarian President Viktor Orbán met with Trump, Orbán told state television that Trump had said he “will not give a penny into the Ukraine-Russia war and therefore the war will end.” Brennan believes “that will encourage Putin to look hungrily at the rest of Europe.”

Trump’s enigmatic and decades-long Russia connection continues to amaze. NATO is taking extra precautions now that Trump has said Russia should be able to do “whatever the hell they want” to NATO members who don’t meet their defense spending targets.

The good news for Trump is that U.S. presidents don’t need security clearances. In November 2016, if not for Trump’s “President-elect” title, “citizen” Trump would have been denied a security clearance due to his extensive long-term business dealings with Russian oligarchs. In 2008, Donald Trump Jr. famously said, “Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets,” and, “We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia.”

No wonder CIA officials saw President Trump “as a security risk.” For anyone not named Trump or Jared Kushner, the exhaustive process for obtaining a security clearance begins with the following nine-point list: “Loyalty to the United States, strength of character, trustworthiness, honesty, reliability, discretion, and soundness of judgment.” Additionally, “We also make sure you: Are free from conflicting allegiances to other countries. Are not a potential risk for blackmail. Will abide by regulations governing the use, handling, and protection of sensitive information.”

In other words, the next likely commander in chief would probably flunk most of the security criteria required of those who will brief him.

The last listed item, “handling and protecting sensitive information,” is a well-documented Trump violation. There are photos of document pieces flushed down his White House toilet. Staffers were tasked with taping together documents that Trump had ripped and discarded. In 2019, Trump tweeted a sensitive Iranian photo, as if he believed it was his personal property.

Such thinking and behavior are the reason Trump has been charged with a 32-count indictment for violating the Espionage Act. Trump allegedly moved boxes of documents, some with the highest classification, to his Mar-a-Lago residence and refused to return them as required by law. (A trial date has yet to be set.)

Topping the list of security clearance criteria is “loyalty to the United States.” Does Trump place loyalty to himself above the nation, given his encouragement of supporters to prevent certification of a lawful election on Jan. 6, 2021, for which Trump has also been indicted? What is national loyalty if not a willingness to abide by the Constitution?

Another clearance question asks if one is “free from conflicting allegiances to other countries.” What gets perhaps less attention than Putin is Trump’s active, lucrative business relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the prince’s LIV Golf tournaments, some hosted at Trump courses.

Liz Peek recently asked whether bin Salman might sabotage Joe Biden’s reelection bid by cutting oil production thus raising prices, which would have adverse ripple effects on the U.S. economy. Indeed, the CIA will be watching the Trump-bin Salman connections, which would likely disqualify anyone from obtaining a federal security clearance.  

If Trump is elected, the intel community will be fighting the Axis of Evil while reporting to a president known as a security risk, and who habitually disregards intelligence that fails to mesh with or interferes with his personal interests. Flush goes the White House toilet and possibly the nation.

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.TAGS 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DONALD TRUMP DONALD TRUMP JR. JAN. 6 CAPITOL RIOT PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN RUSSIA SAUDI ARABIA


By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill – March 29, 2024

Four criminally charged or convicted men pardoned by then-President Trump now orbit his 2024 presidential campaign — exercising their gravitational pull for his victorious reelection. Of the four, Steve Bannon was dramatically granted clemency hours before Trump left office on Jan. 21, 2021, while Roger Stone and Paul Manafort received Christmas gift pardons on December 23, 2020. Retired Army Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn was pardoned a month earlier.

“Orbiting” means they are not officially on Trump’s reelection team. However, Steve Bannon, Roger Stone and Michael Flynn have a prodigious influence on Donald Trump, his campaign and ardent supporters.

And then a surprise news report heralded the re-emergence of the internationally scandalous Paul Manafort. Allegedly, Trump’s disgraced first 2016 campaign manager is poised for a “potential role” at the July Republican National Convention and as a fundraiser for Trump’s cash-strapped campaign.

With Trump’s cult-like MAGA voters wearing “Make America Great Again” and “Save America Again” caps — a bold, lawless image enhances the ability of these pardoned men to galvanize voter support and serve their legally challenged master.

The combative communication styles of Bannon, Stone and Flynn mirror Trump’s outrageous claims of victimhood. He was “robbed” of his 2020 victory, and he is fighting a “weaponized” Justice Department aiming to destroy him — and them, at least until they were graciously pardoned.

Let’s briefly examine each man’s influence on Team Trump and their impact on his third presidential campaign.

Stephen K. Bannon is the most powerful of the pardon four-pack, “Bannon is the intellectual ringleader of the MAGA circus,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) has proclaimed. Proving the point is Bannon’s fiery 2024 CPAC speech. Then, for MAGA street cred, “Bannon seems to have been deeply enmeshed in the planning of the disruption of the peaceful transfer of power and the seizing of the presidency for Donald Trump,” Raskin explained as a member of the January 6 House Committee.

First, a little history: In mid-August 2016, when Trump’s presidential campaign was floundering under Manafort’s disjointed leadership, Bannon was named “campaign chief executive.” After Trump’s shocking victory, Bannon served for seven months as “chief White House strategist” until his combative, headline-generating exit in August 2017.

In August 2020, Bannon and three associates were indicted for defrauding crowdfunding donors who had contributed $25 million to their “We Build the Wall” campaign — the federal charge that Trump commuted on his last day in office. New York state charges were later filed in 2022.

Although Bannon is embroiled in multiple pending legal matters and facing prison, his highly ranked “War Room” podcast makes him a media powerhouse. He has successfully filled the red-meat media gap left by Rush Limbaugh’s death, and his “angry warrior” MAGA brand has left traditional conservativism in the dust.

“War Room” is the go-to misinformation destination for Trump acolytes such as Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.). Encouraged by Bannon’s bombastic master communicator skills, elected members can vent about their enemies and invent conspiracy theories to enhance fundraising while currying favor with Trump.

If Trump wins in 2024, the War Room should be credited for pumping up and turning out Trump’s MAGA army that Bannon’s “deconstructing the administrative state” ideological underpinnings helped birth and grow into a significant political movement.

Roger Stone is a political mastermind infamously known for “dirty tricks,” either real or imagined. Stone’s volatile relationship with Trump began in the 1980s when he was businessman Trump’s first political adviser. Roger’s book, “The Making of the President 2016,” chronicles his role in Trump’s historic upset over Hillary Clinton. If graphed, the Trump-Stone relationship would have sharp peaks and deep valleys but with a continuous brotherly connection.

In July 2020, Stone was sentenced after being convicted of witness tampering, obstruction and lying to Congress about 2016 campaign-related activity. He was hours away from reporting to a federal corrections facility when Trump commuted his sentence and then pardoned him in December 2020. Ever since, at GOP events, Stone has received rock star treatment.

This week, I asked Stone about his status with Team Trump. He replied, “I have, and I seek no formal or informal role in the presidential campaign. I remain a strong supporter of the president, and I speak to him as well as members of his campaign team regarding political matters occasionally. Those conversations remain confidential.”

Stone said that his various radio shows (where he promotes Trump) keep him “more than busy.” Then he added, “If you look at every one of these stories, my alleged [campaign] involvement is simply based on the fact that I have ‘been seen at Mar-a-Lago recently’ — what a crock of s***.”

Truthfully, Trump and Stone will always have each other’s backs — the source of Stone’s influence — which he intentionally underplays, despite having Trump on speed dial.

Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn served as Trump’s first national security adviser. He was in office for only 22 days before the ambush. Flynn was convicted of lying to the FBI about Russian interference in the 2016 presidential campaign, for which Trump pardoned him. He was entangled in more international legal problems subsequently.

In Trump world, Flynn is an emissary, a folk hero, a victim, a man-of-God, and someone who engaged in Jan. 6 related events. He juices up the Christian-nationalist election-denying wing of the GOP. Nonetheless, the general’s influence is dwarfed by that of Trump sergeants Bannon and Stone.

But that could change on April 5, when Flynn begins his national movie tour for “Flynn: Deliver the Truth. Whatever the Cost.” Will Flynn’s “Truth” movie justify his advising Trump to deploy the military to rerun the 2020 election and seize voting machines? Perhaps, along with the popcorn, Flynn will sell Trump’s “God Bless the USA Bibles” so that God can help Trump win and in turn restore Flynn to the White House.

Finally, there’s Paul Manafort. Today, his MAGA influence is zero. But his stock will rise if Trump’s high command hires him as some anticipate, and he performs successfully. Manafort’s rap sheet is marked with old-fashioned greed gone amok, which included hiding $55 million in foreign bank accounts, filing false tax returns, defrauding banks and milking pro-Russian Ukrainian clients — crimes worthy of Trump pardons.

As Trump’s campaign heats up, watch these loyal men earn their pardons.

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008. TAGS DONALD TRUMP MICHAEL FLYNN PAUL MANAFORT ROGER STONE  STEVE BANNON 


By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill March 15, 2024

The Capitol riot of Jan. 6, 2021, presents a yes-or-no question for November’s ballot. Are you willing to forget, ignore or justify the Capitol riot that caused $2.8 million in damage and injured 140 police officers?

According to Fox News, the intruders “defecated in the hallways” and “stomped in their own feces” in their mission to keep President Trump in office by stopping the Electoral College’s certification and disrupting the peaceful transfer of power.

If you choose to rationalize such mayhem, then pray for your nation and continue to vote for Donald Trump. But if you are undecided, be aware that the former president is supported by a Christian nationalist movement that had strong ties to the Jan. 6 perpetrators — the jailed ones he calls “hostages,” whom he will free if elected.

There is no single agreed-upon definition of Christian nationalism. Some erroneously define it as the mere acknowledgment, contained in our Declaration of Independence, that all rights come from God. A more sensible definition that evinces a true threat to the republic would include the belief that America is a Christian nation whose divine destiny must be preserved, even if that entails open rebellion against lawful constitutional authority.

This belief flies in the face of traditional Christian teaching, going back to the words of Jesus and Saint Paul’s epistles, requiring obedience to just laws — including, for example, tax laws, election laws and laws against pillaging public buildings.

Christian nationalism is also antithetical to our founding documents. The First Amendment’s Establishment Clause not only protects religion from state interference, but also protects individual Americans from state enforcement of religious orthodoxy. Christian nationalists, in contrast to our nation’s founders, would condone the latter.

Since 2021, and primarily among Trump’s white evangelical supporters, Christian Nationalism has experienced mainstream growth and acceptability as a viable political movement embedded within the Republican Party. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, only 10 percent of Americans consider themselves Christian nationalists, but another 20 percent sympathize with the idea.

It is common to hear Trump’s most ardent supporters claim that “he’s anointed by God.” And Trump, although his own religiosity is dubious, has hardly discouraged the idea that he is God’s special creation, even circulating his own Trumpian version of Paul Harvey’s homage to farmers.

His supporters’ religious fervor puts real teeth into the presumptive nominee’s dark, authoritarian and apocalyptic campaign of revenge against those who, he insists, stole the 2020 election from him. And this, in turn, points back to Jan. 6, when Trump tried to overturn its result.

Among the testimony presented to the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6 attack, the Freedom from Religion Foundation’s Andrew Seidel described the overt and even ostentatious religiosity of at least some of the attackers. To be sure, one must consider the source — a group hostile toward religious belief. But what Seidel describes can be seen on video by anyone.

“The attackers were not shy about declaring their motivations,” Seidel said in his written testimony. “They held Bibles aloft, prayed in the Senate, carried Christian flags, and openly confessed to their motivations on video. The many disparate identities and ideologies visible during the attack were united under a banner of Christian nationalism, which created the permission structure necessary for Americans to attack their own government.”

Did Trump help create that “permission structure” to rebel against the United States? And would he do it again? All signs point to yes — especially his new litmus test for a vice presidential pick, to choose only someone who would not have done what Mike Pence did on Jan. 6 in fulfilling his constitutional and legal duty to certify Joe Biden’s victory.

Trump has never been known as a Christian, but he knows how to harness the fervor of the victorious warriors who waved Bibles from atop the Senate dais on Jan. 6, shouting, “Jesus Christ, we invoke your name!” He casts the current election in dark, apocalyptic terms as a quasi-spiritual battle in speeches like the one he gave March 4 in Richmond, calling 2024 “our final battle.”

“With you at my side,” Trump said, “we will demolish the deep state. We will expel the warmongers from our government. We will drive out the globalists, we will cast out the communists, Marxists, and fascists, and we will throw off the sick political class that hates our country. We will rout the fake news media, we will drain the swamp, and we will liberate our country from these tyrants and villains once and for all.”

It should come as no surprise that this speech closely echoed the prayer offered inside the Senate chamber on Jan. 6 by the so-called Q-Anon Shaman, the infamous face-painted man wearing Viking horns during the riot: “Thank you for allowing us to get rid of the communists, the globalists, and the traitors within our government. We love you, and we thank you. In Christ’s holy name, we pray. Amen.”

At the National Religious Broadcasters Convention in Nashville, Trump framed the election not as a choice between two parties or two leaders, but as a battle between good (that is himself, of course) and wickedness.

“Remember,” he said, “every communist regime throughout history has tried to stamp out the churches, just like every fascist regime has tried to co-opt them and control them, and, in America, the radical left is trying to do both. They want to tear down crosses where they can and cover them up with social justice flags, but no one will be touching the cross of Christ under the Trump administration, I swear to you.”

America saw what happened on Jan. 6, 2021. Do we really want to go back there again?

My national and Christian prayer for Nov. 5 is, “God help us.”

Myra Adams writes about politics and religion. She served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.

TAGS 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CHRISTIAN NATIONALISM DONALD TRUMP JESUS CHRIST


By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill – March 1, 2024

A historic milestone will be reached in the 2024 election, likely to generate political power surges across the electoral landscape.

Demographic data and current trends analyzed by the Pew Research Center found that Latinos or Hispanics are “projected to account for 14.7 percent of all eligible voters in November 2024, a new high.” For the first time, Hispanic voters are expected to surpass Black voters as a percentage of the electorate, after each group comprised 13 percent of voters in the 2020 presidential election.

Exit polling results preserved by the Roper Center show how, over two decades, the Hispanic vote grew to equal the Black share of the electorate. In 2000, Hispanics accounted for 7 percent of voters, with Blacks at 10 percent. In Barack Obama’s 2008 election, the share of Black voters grew to 13 percent, whereas Hispanics expanded to 9 percent.

The 2016 Trump-versus-Clinton matchup saw Hispanics grow to 11 percent while Blacks dipped to 12 percent. Finally, in the 2020 election, Black and Hispanic voters tied at 13 percent each.

With the Black vote stagnating at about 13 percent since 2008, the growing Hispanic vote is now expected to meet and exceed it, becoming the nation’s second-largest voter group.

Shifting from voter percentages to numbers, in January 2024, Pew Research estimated that 36.2 million Hispanics are eligible to vote in 2024, up from 32.3 million in 2020. Astoundingly, those numbers represent 50 percent of the total growth of all eligible voters.

With such exponential growth, Hispanic voters take center stage in 2024. All eyes are on the fierce battleground state of Arizona, where they will account for nearly one in five voters. According to a recent Emerson College/The Hill pollDonald Trump leads President Biden in Arizona 46 to 43 percent in a tough fight for the state’s 11 electoral votes, when in 2020, Biden eked out a surprise win by only 0.3 percent of just over 3.3 million votes.

Although Arizona ranks fifth among states with the largest Hispanic population — behind California, Texas, Florida, and New York — it is the only one where the outcome of the 2024 presidential election seems uncertain.

From a perspective well beyond the 2024 election, Hispanics are beginning to mirror emerging voter groups that changed American political history starting in the 20th century. The gender and racial composition of today’s elected leaders reflect the success of those movements.

Women were the first significant voter group to emerge after being granted the right to vote in all 50 states upon ratification of the 19th Constitutional Amendment in 1920. Fast forward 100 years to the 2020 presidential election, and women as a percentage of the electorate surpassed men (52 to 48 percent), as they have in every presidential election since 1984.

Black Americans were the second major voter group to emerge, facilitated by two legislative acts. First, the 24th Amendment, outlawing poll taxes, was ratified in 1964. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 soon followed. Both laws endeared the Democratic Party to Black voters, to which they have remained steadfastly loyal ever since.

The exit polling data show the astronomically high percentage of Black American support for Democratic presidential candidates, ranging from a low of 83 percent for Jimmy Carter in 1976 to a high of 95 percent for Barack Obama in 2008. It averages around 86 percent. Joe Biden won 87 percent of the Black vote in 2020, slightly lower than the 89 percent that Hillary Clinton had earned in 2016.

Donald Trump’s support from Black voters was 12 percent in 2020, a 4-point increase from 8 percent in 2016. Trump’s ability to win Black votes in battleground states will be something to watch for this year. Currently, Black voter support for Biden appears to be flagging and, potentially diminishing his chances of winning battleground states such as Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Although Black Americans have historically voted as a block, Hispanic loyalty to Democrats is far less certain. On average, they vote about 66 percent Democrat. In 2020, Trump improved his percentage with Hispanic voters, taking 32 percent, up from 28 percent in 2016.

The latest census data show Hispanics making up 19.1 percent of the population, compared to Blacks at 12.6 percent and non-Hispanic whites at 58.9 percent. Those percentages portend the dramatic national power balance shift now underway between Blacks and Hispanics, further complicated by the shrinking non-Hispanic white population. 

To the extent that a cohesive “Hispanic vote” exists, the 1 million young Hispanics turning 18 every year represents a steady stream of demographic voting power. Thus, a front-burner question for political strategists is how many of these young Hispanics plan to register and turn out to vote.

The second question is whether they will still vote 66 percent Democratic as in decades past, giving Democratic presidential candidates the margins on which they have depended. Alternatively, are they headed in the same direction as other formerly Democratic Catholic ethnic groups, who shifted dramatically toward Republicans in the late 20th century, leading to today’s evenly-split Catholic vote?

That’s for Republicans and Democrats to fight over this year, and well beyond the 2024 election.

Myra Adams writes about politics and religion. She served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.TAGS 2022 MIDTERMS 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DONALD TRUMP DONALD TRUMP JOE BIDEN PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN


By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill Feb. 16, 2024

For the third time in a row, former President Donald Trump is expected to win the Republican nomination. His chances of becoming the 47th president are no worse than 50-50. Not only is President Biden a weak incumbent, but Trump appears to have the momentum and the lead in most of the key swing states.

Never in our nation’s history has a former president been at war with America. But, propelled by political winds, Trump has made himself a warrior-candidate, uniquely accepted by half of voters in a nation at civil war-levels of polarization, coupled with a general distrust of government amidst signs of decline.

On the primary campaign trail, Trump foments rage among his followers. In his Jan. 22 New Hampshire primary victory speech, he shouted his time-tested pronouncement: “This country has gone to hell, this country has gone to hell.”

War is hell, and Trump’s fans believe that only he has the blood and guts, energy, strength, and policies to save America.

Trump’s aggressive negativity is a sharp contrast with the traditional norms of campaign communication, a vast deviation from Ronald Reagan’s sunny optimism. His “Morning in America” television commercial amid his 1984 landslide reelection, clashes sharply with another quintessential Trumpian quote: “We’re going to bring our country back. With your vote, you’re going to put crooked Joe and his protectors on notice that we are coming in November. We’re coming to take over the beautiful, beautiful White House, and we’re going to run the country the way it’s supposed to be run, not the way it’s been.”

Not only does “General” Trump promise “to bring our country back” (from hell, one presumes), but he plans to “take over” the White House. No American presidential candidate has ever promised a “takeover” with a Trump-loyal army-in-waiting named Project 2025.

Also present on Trump’s New Hampshire victory stage was Vivek Ramaswamy, basking in the afterglow of his failed campaign. The former primary candidate has quickly morphed into Trump’s considerably more articulate sidekick. Ramaswamy encapsulated the 45th president’s 2024 “at-war” theme. “We are in the middle of a war in this country,” he said. “It’s not between black and white or even between most Democrats and Republicans. It is between those of us who love this country and a fringe minority who hates the United States of America and what we stand for, between the permanent state and the everyday citizen.”

Here’s an opposing view: “We are in the middle of a war in this country,” that Trump is waging against any person, celebrity, group, political party, branch of government, department, agency, institution, body of law, organization, or established process he deems to be “unfair” or standing between his goal of total domination. 

That list includes current and former Republican members of Congress, Trump administration cabinet officials, retired four-star generals, and the media, for consistently generating “fake news,” except when the coverage is favorable to him.

Trump’s lies and exaggerations are repeated so often that one-third of American ears have normalized his rantings as truth. Hence, Trump’s war will continue to thrive while his well-oiled multi-platform propaganda and fear machines are operational 24/7, to raise money and churn out promises that double as battle plans.

One controversial battle plan Trump announced during his Veteran’s Day message: to “root out the Communists, Marxists, Fascists, and Radical Left Thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country, lie, steal, and cheat on elections, and will do anything possible, whether legally or illegally, to destroy America, and the American Dream.”

One of the most effective weapons in Trump’s strategic arsenal is the 38 percent of Americans who believe that Biden’s 2020 election was illegitimate — “stolen,” in Trump’s warring words.

Most often, Trump fires artillery about how the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol would have turned out differently, had Vice President Mike Pence “done his job” refusing to certify the votes of the Electoral College. That explains why Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Sen. J..D Vance (R-Ohio), perhaps hoping to be named Trump’s running mate, recently stated they would have taken the action that Pence lawfully refused.

Meanwhile, planting political landmines on the campaign trail, Trump vows to rescue the Jan. 6 “hostages” with pardons. (After he finishes being dictator on day one?) Then and always, Trump uses his sympathy weapon, playing the “victim” card with his 91 felony counts, since Biden has weaponized the Justice Department against him.

Last year, the former president officially declared war, unveiling his political manifesto at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), when he said: “I am your warrior, I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.” CPAC 2024 is next week, so listen as Trump throws fiery new verbal daggers to motivate the assembly of foot soldiers.

Another battlefront is an email blast I have somehow started to receive with a “Trump War” subject line, highlighted by a red siren mimicking the Drudge Report’s news alerts. “Trump War” points to an all-headline, Trump-friendly clone of Drudge’s famous 1990s-era vintage format — proving that imitation is the greatest form of flattery.   

“General” Trump and his army are psyched to fight and torpedo any legislation Trump fears could help Biden. This busy week, the general’s sword hangs over House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) refusal to hold a floor vote for Ukraine and Israel military aid. Also, Trump “attacked” NATO and announced plans to conquer the Republican National Committee.

“I am really good at war,” Trump boasted in April 2016. That comes from a man who never wore the uniform but has readily ridiculed those who have. Undeniably, Trump is at war, and if victorious, anyone not in lockstep could become collateral damage. 

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.TAGS 

2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DONALD TRUMP JOE BIDEN PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN


By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill – Jan. 19, 2024

Republican presidential candidates often warn that America is declining, and that only they can stop its demise. Former President Donald Trump believes that the national decline halted during his term in office and will stop again when he is reelected.

But five unmistakable signs of American decline have been gathering momentum for decades, through both Republican and Democratic administrations. No president or party can solve these chronically intertwined, deep-rooted, systemic economic, political, societal and cultural problems. Officials can only manage the decline and mitigate the impact.

1. Uncontrollable U.S. Debt: The U.S. Debt Clock displays the inevitability of American decline — a “ticking time bomb” of data and financial evidence — especially the following three.

The U.S. government’s total unfunded liabilities — the combined amount of payments promised without funds to recipients of Social Security, Medicare, federal employee pensions, veterans’ benefits and federal debt held by the public — stand at $212 trillion, and are rapidly increasing. For context, that number was just $122 trillion as recently as 2019 and is projected by the Debt Clock to reach $288.9 trillion by 2028.

That is an unimaginable amount of money — more than a quarter of a quadrillion dollars. When or if the government is forced to reduce payments, pensions or services to hold things together, or to default on its debt, the consequences will be brutal.

The second ticking bomb is the U.S. debt. At $34 trillion, it has increased more than six-fold from $5.6 trillion in 2000. Of that $34 trillion, $731 billion has been accumulated through interest payments — the fourth-highest annual U.S. budget item. (If you are keeping score, the third-highest is $851 billion for Defense, exceeded by Social Security at $1.39 trillion and topped by Medicare-Medicaid at $1.72 trillion.)

Like an irresponsible credit card user, the federal government is perpetually borrowing more money to make the interest payments as they come due. And the interest payments on the newly refinanced debt will be much higher due to recent and significant rate-hikes.

Finally, the $34 trillion national debt, as a percentage of the nation’s $27.8 trillion economy entails a debt-to-GDP ratio of 122.30 percent, headed to 150 percent by 2028. That’s up from 56 percent in 2000 and 36 percent in 1980. Don’t expect any meaningful discussions or solutions from either party about these three “bombs” as their timers tick away.

2. Low student achievement: If our nation is to dig itself out of that harrowing debt trap, it will need successive generations of superstar students, armed with skills and creativity. Someday, they will invent and harness technologies to manufacture state-of-the-art products and related services, fueling an economic boom that boosts the GDP.

Unfortunately, the “Nation’s Report Card” does not hint at such an optimistic future. The National Assessment of Educational Progress, a congressionally mandated Education Department program that has assessed students since 1969, finds that the only 29 percent of fourth graders and 20 percent of eighth graders are even proficient in math. Only 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively, are “advanced” at those levels.

Overall achievement had decreased in both reading and math compared to the already-disappointing numbers of 2019. So both before and after COVID, our education system appears to be losing the fight against national decline.

3. Increasing income and wealth inequality: Sub-par educational achievement will probably only increase the gap between the rich and poor. Moreover, it will shrink the once-vibrant middle class — the pride of post-war America.

Pew Research, conflating the ideas of “middle class” and “middle income,” recently found this vital group to have shrunk from 61 percent of households in 1971 to just 50 percent in 2021. Although a net increase in upper-income households accounted for most of this net decline of the middle class, the latter are still bringing in a disproportionately reduced percentage of the nation’s total income — down from 62 percent in 1971 to just 42 percent in 2021.

A clearer warning sign is the decrease in homeownership, long a benchmark of middle-class status, financial stability, and wealth-building. That is another reason the gap between rich and poor could keep widening as the government spends extra billions to fight poverty, contributing further to out-of-control debt and inevitable national decline.

4. Loss of American identity and patriotism: The once-great American “melting pot” is an outdated concept for many Americans. Traditionally, immigrants with different languages and cultures assimilated and became distinctly American. The current trend is toward a heterogeneous culture.

Meanwhile, among non-white youth, adopting an American identity and even saluting the flag is considered “nationalistic,” representing an “old America” — predominately white, Christian, and inherently unequal.

Patriotism has declined, especially among more ethnically diverse 18 to 34-year-olds. That brings us to our rapidly changing population. No modern nation has ever experienced such dramatic demographic change, and already-increasing racial tensions could vastly accelerate, hastening national decline.

5. Widespread belief that our political system is broken: Americans’ disdain for the political system has been captured in numerous polls, showing voters are dissatisfied with a potential Biden-Trump rematch — “a uniquely horrible choice,” as the headline quote from one voter put it.

Team Trump is certain that only the former president can preserve democracy, save the nation from the southern border “invasion,” and stop President Biden’s “corruption,” along with the “weaponization” of his Justice Department.

Conversely, Democrats believe Biden will save democracy and the country from Trump, who will otherwise be an authoritarian ruler, shredding the Constitution.

So the political system is at least broken enough to lock in two flawed, unpopular candidates well past their prime and — along with all of the above — set America on a declining glide-path.

Let’s hope that whatever remains of American exceptionalism will triumph over and reverse the forces of decline.

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.TAGS DONALD TRUMP NATIONAL DEBT STUDENT PERFORMANCE


By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

FILE – Pastor Paula White, left, and other faith leaders pray with President Donald Trump, center, during a rally for evangelical supporters at the King Jesus International Ministry church, Friday, Jan. 3, 2020, in Miami. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky, File)

Reposted from The Hill – Jan. 5, 2024

Former President Donald Trump enters 2024 leading his Republican rivals by a national poll average of 51 percentage points. However, Iowa influencers from Trump’s loyal base of evangelical voters have established goalposts also applicable to the general electorate, should Trump top the GOP ticket.  

The first “goalpost” was reported by Reuters in mid-December. Quoted while presiding over a Trump prayer circle, Brad Sherman, an Iowa state legislator and pastor, cried to God, “There is a great victory coming for this nation and the world because of the calling you’ve placed on this man.” Another devout Iowa voter exclaimed, “We believe that he’s anointed by God.”   

During this presidential season, long-time evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats finds himself at the opposite end of the Iowa playing field. A former leading Trump supporter, Vander Plaats, has “had enough” and now believes Trump “is not the leadership our country needs.” He predicts that “Iowa will rise up.” He earned Trump’s ire in November after endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

That one person could be perceived by some evangelicals as “anointed by God” and “called” to lead a “great victory,” and by others as “not the leadership our country needs,” indicates the very schism that makes Trump the most controversial, enigmatic, and influential national political figure of the 21st century. He leads a robust, growing nationalist movement far greater than the Republican Party, while proudly expressing dictatorial sentiments for his second term.

Evangelical voters are a valued part of Trump’s movement. In 2020, 84 percent of white evangelicals supported him, compared to 77 percent in 2016, according to Pew Research

Slightly lower, Gallup reported, 81 percent of white evangelical voters went for Trump, with Biden winning only 18 percent.  

Although this Trump-loyal group represents only 14.5 percent of the population, they turn out in force and wield an outsized influence, comprising 28 percent of the electorate in 2020. Furthermore, white evangelicals are disproportionately concentrated in the critical swing states of Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina. 

In those states, Trump could win a second term on the back of strong evangelical turnout, if he can only shave a few percentage points off Biden’s 18 percent support from that group. Meanwhile, with Democratic enthusiasm trending downward for President Biden among his party’s traditional voter groups, strong evangelical support would carry more weight in battleground states. 

Interestingly, in 2016, then-Indiana Gov. Mike Pence helped deliver the evangelical vote when tapped as Trump’s running mate. Trump cemented that loyalty by appointing three Supreme Court justices whose votes indirectly overturned Roe vs. Wade, the long-hated 1973 abortion rights ruling. 

Proving how strong political alliances can shift, Pence is now politically dead — rejected by his evangelical base and deemed an enemy of Trump for the events of Jan. 6, 2021. Worse, that base now rationalizes, downplays or just puts out of mind the cries that day of “Hang Mike Pence!” 

Usually, a hanging results in murder, and Bible-reading evangelicals know that “Thou shalt not kill” is one of the Ten Commandments. If you need a refresher, first-hand reporting appears in the Old Testament book of Exodus. Moses, who received the Ten Commandments from God, is represented both inside and outside the Supreme Court building, symbolizing how the commandments formed the basis of law governing Western civilization.

That poses a political and religious conundrum. Many evangelical voters believe that God is calling Trump to lead the nation. But at one time or another, Trump has disregarded most of the decalogue, often willfully. Here is a brief rundown. 

1. “You shall have no other gods before me”  

Critics argue that Trump’s ego-driven behavior, coupled with his apparent disregard for the Constitution, means he thinks of himself as god-like. Anti-Trump forces consider him a pseudo-messianic figure who operates above accepted norms of moral and legal behavior. On Capitol Hill, he has been called “Orange Jesus.” Unlike most humans, Trump is consistently never wrong, makes a point of never asking forgiveness, and can never lose. 

2. “You shall not make for yourself an idol”

Millions of Americans believe that Trump has fostered an idol-like cult of personality — a force to be worshipped. This is not completely an exaggeration — remember the gold Trump idol at CPAC? Initially, Trump built an empire based on his name brand. Now, he sells Trump digital trading cards and has morphed into a superhero idol.  

3. “You shall not take the name of the Lord your God in vain” 

Trump is known to use foul language and has at times crossed the line into blasphemy. Also reported is when Trump denigrated evangelical pastors for praying over him and called them “hustlers.” 

4. “Remember the Sabbath day, to keep it holy” 

Trump worships on the golf course. 

5. “Honor your father and mother” 

Trump has at least somewhat dishonored his father, Fred, whose hundreds of millions paid for him to become a “self-made” billionaire. 

6. “You shall not murder”   

Mike Pence was not hanged, so Trump gets a pass. 

7. “You shall not commit adultery” 

Trump’s numerous extramarital affairs are well documented, often through his own bragging. Two of his alleged affairs are still the subject of litigation. He was also found liable in civil court for sexual assault in May 2023. 

8. “You shall not steal”   

Trump tried but failed to steal the 2020 election. He will have his day in court for that one. 

9. “You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor”  

According to the Washington Post’s fact checkers, Trump made 30,573 false or misleading statements during his presidency. Even if the number is somewhat inflated by bogus fact-checks, the number of legitimate falsehoods he has told — including the lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him — is large even for a politician.

10. “You shall not covet”  

Trump covets power and authority. He will stop at nothing to get it and keep it. He attempted to overturn the 2020 election when his power was about to be legally terminated. Then, upon leaving office, Trump took hundreds of sensitive documents that belonged to the government.  

After holding Trump accountable against the Ten Commandments, evangelical voters must justify and rationalize the gap between God’s law and Trump’s mission to “make America great again.”

At Trump rallies, you often see evangelical supporters wearing hats or t-shirts proclaiming, “Jesus is my savior, Trump is my president.” On Election Day, these most passionate, devout voters will be in national prayer circles asking God to deliver.

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.TAGS 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BRAD SHERMAN DONALD TRUMP JAN. 6 CAPITOL RIOT MIKE PENCE TEN COMMANDMENTS


By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill – Dec. 22, 2023

Raise your hand if you are dreading 2024. Keep it up if you believe it will be more traumatic than 2023.

As I was writing this piece, the news broke that the Colorado Supreme Court had ruled former President Trump is ineligible to appear on the 2024 presidential ballot, citing the Constitution’s 14th Amendment insurrection clause.

This unprecedented ruling, likely headed to the Supreme Court, illustrates how alarming, destructive, distressing events and circumstances from 2023 will continue unabated or conclude with more polarizing or dangerous consequences. Thus, 2024 could rank among the most harrowing and catastrophic in national and world history based on the following 11 “what if” questions.

1. What if a barrage of AI-generated content and social media from domestic and foreign players blur presidential campaign messaging, so that voters don’t know what is real or fake?

In April, a member of Congress stated that Russia, China and Iran prefer Trump to win over President Biden. If true, consider a chilling report from the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center, entitled “Protecting Election 2024 from foreign malign influence.” Microsoft warns that a vast operation will target and manipulate voters through extensive foreign AI, cyber, website disinformation and social media. Be aware: A toxic stew of nefarious foreign players will try to influence your vote.

2. What if House Republicans vote to impeach President Biden?

Last week’s party-line vote approved an impeachment inquiry against President Biden. By spring, if House Speaker Johnson counts enough Republican votes to pass articles of impeachment, our nation will experience its first back-to-back impeachments against successive presidents.

Democrats consider this GOP impeachment effort political theatre directed by Donald Trump. Therefore, Biden could have a unique opportunity to show strength, fight back and appeal to voters who think he is too old. And like Trump, Biden could count on an acquittal after his Senate trial.

Furthermore, what if House GOP leaders find insufficient evidence to move forward with articles of impeachment or are short of votes to impeach? Call that a politically embarrassing debacle, perhaps followed by a face-saving “Let the voters decide.” Such a pro-democracy-sounding spin message could be the end-game for this “revenge impeachment.” Undoubtedly, Trump would be furious if Biden were not impeached and lash out at the “weak” House leadership.

3. What if Biden drops out?

That unlikely but not implausible scenario would be the political equivalent of a nuclear bomb, changing the course of American history. Vice President Kamala Harris would be tough to dethrone, but unpopular and potentially beatable by Trump.

4. What if the Supreme Court rules that Trump has presidential immunity and can not stand trial on Jan. 6-related charges?

Such a ruling would be a constitutional shock to our nation and damaging to the Supreme Court’s reputation. According to George Washington University law professor Paul Schiff Berman, granting Trump immunity for criminal action while in office “goes more to the heart of whether the president is a president or a king.”

In 2024, there is no “what if,” only a series of how Trump-related Supreme Court rulings will impact and influence the presidential election.

5. What if Trump is convicted of a felony before November’s election, and polls show he still defeats Biden?

Fortunately for Trump, the Constitution does not state that a criminal conviction makes one ineligible to hold the nation’s highest office. Therefore, again, “Let the voters decide” resolves that question.

6. What if the economy keeps improving and growing with a strong stock market while inflation, interest rates and unemployment all trend lower?  

Would a strong economy translate into higher job approval for President Biden? Not necessarily. If the cost of living is still perceived as too high and the southern border immigration crisis is uncontrollable, Biden could well become a one-term president even amid a recovery.

Recently, Trump unveiled his new campaign slogan: “Better Off With Trump.” It is a personal and narcissistic twist on the traditional presidential election question: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” Theoretically, the answer should be “yes,” since the pandemic began in 2020. Nonetheless, Trump’s communication machine and savvy showmanship skills are light years beyond Biden’s, and more voters will be thinking “No.”

7. What if Trump’s campaign rhetoric continues to sound authoritarian as he leads Biden in the polls?

The more Trump quotes his favorite dictators, the more his unorthodox speech becomes normalized and acceptable to voters. At last weekend’s New Hampshire rally, Trump unabashedly said: “Even Vladimir Putin says that Biden’s — and this is a quote — ‘politically motivated persecution of his political rival is very good for Russia, because it shows the rottenness of the American political system, which cannot pretend to teach others about democracy.’”

Trump is brilliantly employing political jujutsu with all-caps campaign signs proclaiming that “BIDEN ATTACKS DEMOCRACY.” Voters cheer because Trump is their strong man who promises, “We’re going to bring our country back from hell. It’s in hell.”

8. What if the U.S. is drawn into a Middle East war against Iran-backed groups that continue to provoke U.S. naval ships and disrupt international commercial shipping?

Speaking of hell… The Houthis are warning that their attacks will continue. How will the U.S. and its allies stop this naval and merchant ship crisis without further escalation?

9. What if, without U.S. aid, Ukraine falls to Russia?

Putin’s mission is to reconstitute the Soviet empire. If the U.S. abandons Ukraine, we will pay more later and show the world that the U.S. is an unreliable ally.

10. What if war explodes on three fronts?

What if China takes advantage of the distractions in the Middle East and Ukraine to invade Taiwan? Chinese President Xi recently warned Biden that timing is the only question.

11. What if there is a terrorist attack in the U.S., and the perpetrators(s) enter over the southern border?

According to the U.S. Border Patrol Terrorist Screening Dataset, this is an increasing threat. Should it happen, say hello to President Donald J. Trump. But no worries, He will only be a “dictator on day one.”

Potentially, 2024 will rival the domestic upheaval of 1968 and the international threats of 1939. Brace yourself for double chaos.

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.

TAGS 2024 DONALD TRUMP JOE BIDEN KAMALA HARRIS PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN


By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

When Capitol building cleaning crews were removing feces from the hallowed halls of Congress after the riot of Jan. 6, 2021, no one imagined that Donald Trump would be leading the 2024 Republicanpresidential primary field by a 48-point margin just three years later.

Two overarching reasons help explain this unusual circumstance.

First, his “Make America Great Again” base is immovable. Trump knew that already on Jan. 23, 2016, when at a rally in Iowa, he famously stated, “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters. Okay?” This is, for example, why Trump can be so comfortable with careless conversations about the executive orders he wants to sign at the beginning of his second term, telling Sean Hannity that he would not be a dictator, “other than day one.”

Second, May poll data found that six out of ten Republicans still think the 2020 election was illegitimate. No wonder, since at his Iowa rally last Saturday, Trump repeatedly told the crowd that Democrats “rigged and stole the 2020 election.”

This delusion has poisoned Trump voters’ minds in seven distinct ways.

1. Deceptive Rationalization

Whatever Trump says or does, no matter the evidence to the contrary, his loyal followers normalize, downplay, excuse, and rationalize his behaviors, speech, and legal issues. Indeed, any of dozens of instances of his controversial behavior would have doomed any traditional presidential candidate before June 2015, when he first descended the Trump Tower escalator.

No “traditional” presidential candidate could have survived two impeachments, indictments on 91 felony counts, and numerous investigations without the magic spell of deceptive rationalization. That is the superstructure reinforcing Trump’s movement.

Among my Trump-loyal friends, I often hear rationalizations such as, “I don’t like his personality, but I like his policies,” and “Our nation was stronger when he was president.”

When I ask, “What about Jan. 6, 2021?” the answer is, “That was overblown.” I say, “What about his trying to overturn the Constitution to stay in power?” The retort is, “It was justified, since the election was stolen.” Finally, I ask, “How about all his indictments?” Answer: “It is a Democrat scam to keep him from winning in 2024.”  

Deceptive rationalization is the unbreakable feedback loop between Trump and his followers. Trump is perpetually the innocent victim who cannot lose or fail, and the star who always rises, vowing to undo any wrongs, improve your life, and strengthen the nation.

2. Respect for the strong-man image

American masculinity is under attack. Trump appeals to the MAGA mindset by exemplifying the 20th-century fighting persona of great American manhood. To his fans, he is John Wayne or Rocky Balboa, someone who takes no crap and fights to the end. A Trump voter told me, “Only Trump has the courage to stand up to his enemies. He is not bought or owned by lobbyists. He can be trusted to do what is best for America.”

In the mind of MAGA voters, the 2024 election might be characterized as “Trump is strong, and Biden is weak.” And Trump’s “dictator” remark only solidifies this popular strongman image.

3. Biden is much worse than Trump

When I discussed Trump’s dictatorial language with Trump-voting friends, one said, “Biden is not an option.” Another remarked, “I’ll take Trump any day over Biden. He is better than what we have now.”

The right-leaning media echo chamber has made Trump a respectable alternative to Biden. Furthermore, Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting in 2024, so Trump can undo the damage Biden has done. Trump equals hope for America. Biden means disaster.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) piled on last Sunday, stating that if Biden is reelected, “then we won’t recognize America and the world will be truly on fire.”

4. Whataboutism

Comparing Trump to Biden and his son Hunter is a favorite MAGA mind game. For every controversial Trump action, there is a Biden equivalent that evens the playing field. Trump and his voters believe Biden has weaponized the government, most notably the Justice Department.

On Tuesday, when Hannity asked Trump if he would “use the government to go after people,” Trump retorted, “You mean like they’re using right now?” He thus expertly applied his “whataboutism” skill to justify his authoritarian-sounding second-term proposals as a means to saving America and democracy.   

This is not accidental. At his recent Iowa rally, Trump said, “Joe Biden is the destroyer of American democracy,” and Trump’s campaign distributed all-caps signs reading, “BIDEN ATTACKS DEMOCRACY.” The 2024 “whataboutism” battle is intentional, and it will be fierce.

5. Rural/blue-collar America gives its middle finger to governmental authority

For Trump’s supporters, he personifies turning the tables on authority with a stick it to the boss” mentality. Ironically, Trump vows to replace authority with more authority, loyal only to him.

6. Trump represents an America First policy agenda that gets things done.

In Iowa last week, as before, Trump bragged, “I kept Israel safe. I kept Ukraine safe. None of this stuff would have happened. And I kept the entire world safe….And as the 47th president…we will do it again.” And the crowds cheer wildly.

7. Us-versus-Them mentality

“We pledge to you that we will root out the communists, Marxists, fascists, and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country, that lie and steal and cheat on elections,” Trump said on Nov. 11 in New Hampshire.

A Trump-loyal friend emailed, “I have heard many times on Fox that Washington is portraying Trump as a Hitler. No one is listening to reporters.”

Are MAGA voters deaf to Trump’s own words?

Presumably, any non-Trump voter could be included in the “them” whom Trump described on Nov.11. Still, his followers believe the “Trump is a dictator talk” to be “patently absurd,” perpetrated by a liberal media freaking out over Trump potentially returning to power. Given the extreme us-versus-them polarization, it is doubtful that Trump’s “dictator” remarks will change any votes.

My safe 2024 prediction: The losing party will believe it is “the end of America.”

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008TAGS 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DONALD TRUMP JOE BIDEN PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN