By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor
MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE
Reposted from The Hill – May 15, 2026

The midterm election is 172 days away. That is 172 years in political time, when any day can alter the election’s trajectory, triggering seismic shifts.
Given the previous volatility, my August 2025 Hill op-ed titled “7 reasons the 2026 midterms will be the most dramatic ever” needs updating, starting with adding “dangerous” to the headline.
The first reason on last summer’s list remains the overarching one: President Trump “fears that Republicans will lose control of Congress.” He knows the severe consequences his administration and the Republican Party face if they lose the House and possibly the Senate. Then the legislature can reassert itself as a coequal branch of government rather than serve as Trump’s yes-men.
Meanwhile, Trump is fighting history. Since 1938, only twice has the president’s party gained House seats: in 1998, President Bill Clinton’s Democrats gained five seats, and in 2002, President George W. Bush’s Republicans gained eight seats.
In the 2018 midterm, Trump presided over a Democratic net gain of 40 House seats. Notably, on May 16, 2018, his job approval averaged 43 percent; today his average is 40 percent, with dips to 38.5 percent. Then consider this startling majority opinion: in a recent poll, The Hill reported, 59 percent “indicated Trump does not have the mental sharpness it takes to lead the country.”
The second reason for midterm drama and danger is gerrymandering, the practice of redistricting. Although gerrymandering dates to 1812, it has spun out of control, resulting in an “uncivil war” initially fueled by Trump’s extreme fear of losing congressional control and recently accelerated by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling. This anti-democratic practice, in which politicians pick their constituents, is a scourge that weakens our nation, undermining the integrity of the electoral process through rigged representation by design.
Such partisan design yields congressional “safe seats,” which, in theory, should not exist in a democracy. Thus, safe seats are the root cause of uncompromising polarization among House members. An April YouGov poll found that 71 percent of Americans say “states should not be allowed to draw congressional districts in a way that intentionally favors one party.”
In my August 2025 piece, citing redistricting, I noted a “possible revolt” if Republicans kept control of the House. Nine months later, with widespread extreme redistricting favoring Republicans, such a revolt is even more likely.
Third, America is on the cusp of its first “authoritarian” election. In his May 10 Truth Social post, Trump wrote about employing an “Election Integrity Army in every single State to preserve the sanctity of each legal vote.” Citing this “Army” as the reason he won in 2024, Trump continued, “We will be doing the same again in 2026, but it will be much bigger and stronger.”
On Tuesday, ironically, as the president was departing for Communist China, Trump was asked if “he would send National Guard or ICE officers to voting locations,” and replied, “I do anything necessary to make sure we have honest elections.”
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche also appears supportive of employing ICE. And recall what former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said about the midterms: “We’ve been proactive to make sure that we have the right people voting.” Therefore, Americans must be concerned about voter safety and potential authoritarian-style activity on Election Day.
Fourth, early signs point to 2026 being among the highest voter turnout in midterm history. Therefore, count on intimidation in Democratic areas as discussed above.
The fifth reason for midterm drama and danger is the dour mood among American consumers, in which worries about affordability are a staple of daily life. Trump’s sinking job approval is mirrored in gas prices, grocery receipts, health insurance premiums, and soaring utility bills. Yet he appears extremely cavalier, seemingly incapable of feeling the people’s pain.
Sixth, with artificial intelligence creating fake, damaging campaign ads and targeted miscommunications, voters must discern what is real, because fakes could determine the outcome of close elections.
Seventh, voters feel powerless. Few trust the government to improve their economic circumstances or curb inflation, as Trump promised to do in 2024. Moreover, Americans are paying billions for an unpopular war in Iran, which, in March, the president called an “excursion” to be over “very soon.” Furthermore, Trump is obsessed with getting even, engaging billionaires, enriching his family, and building a gilded ballroom, all while renaming and remaking Washington as if it were Mar-a-Lago.
In summary, Trump’s name will appear at the top of every midterm ballot, if only virtually. If Republicans lose control of Congress, he might claim the election was rigged. And, since Trump equates losing with weakness, he could respond aggressively, possibly activating federal forces. Alternatively, if Republicans retain control of Congress, vast numbers will claim the election was won through gerrymandering or voter intimidation and might take to the streets.
Buckle up for the most dramatic and dangerous midterm election in U.S. history.









