By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor
MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE
Reposted from The Hill – Jan. 9, 2026

You might have heard the quote describing the vice presidential office as “not worth a bucket of warm spit.” Credit John N. Garner, who was President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s vice president from 1933 to 1941.
That demeaning statement has proven both accurate and inaccurate, depending on the president’s relationship with the vice president, their skill set, experience, and political ambition. However, an untimely presidential death always hovers over the vice presidency, transforming that “spit bucket” into the seat of power.
Vice President JD Vance is 180 degrees removed from the bucket and widely considered the office’s most powerful occupant. In one year, at age 41, Vance has surpassed the overall influence of Vice President Dick Cheney during President George W. Bush’s tenure from 2001 to 2009.
The power and trust President Trump has bestowed on JD Vance is why he attracts megawatts of media attention. It began in August 2024, when the inexperienced junior senator from Ohio was unexpectedly tapped as Trump’s running mate. Presumably, because Vance was chosen as the “heir apparent” to the MAGA throne, he is a “developing” news story.
Last year, my Vance-related op-eds were published on Jan. 31, May 16 and July 18. The topics included Vance’s ambition, a quiet drama involving Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump Jr., “wild speculation” about 2028, and inevitable power struggles that are destined to intensify. The hot questions now are “Is Rubio rising? Why is Vance absent? Is Don Jr. the one to watch?”
This week, RealClearPolitics poll averages show Vance with nearly 50 percent support for the 2028 Republican nomination. Even before declaring his presidential intentions, Vance received a powerful early endorsement in late December.
Tasked with winning Trump’s “third term,” Vance’s first and ongoing battle is managing his relationship with Donald J. Trump, which cannot be managed for many reasons. It is well established that the president can never lose, stomps on rules and laws, has the thinnest skin, is consumed by his legacy, and demands loyalty above all else. Furthermore, because Trump is a “family man” and reluctant to surrender power, Don Jr. stands in the wings, potentially complicating Vance’s path to the White House.
In September, President Trump and Republicans announced legislation to officially change the name of the Department of Defense to the Department of War. The latest problem for Vance is that the department is taking its rebrand too literally, threatening or engaging in a dangerous, multi-nation-conquering, oil-grabbing rampage that the vice president must defend, yet has been noticeably quiet.
Vance’s second biggest battle is overcoming political history, which statistically does not favor incumbent vice presidents’ chances of winning the White House. Since our nation’s founding, only four incumbent vice presidents have been elected president. Yes, only four: John Adams in 1796, Thomas Jefferson in 1800, Martin Van Buren in 1836, and, 152 years later, George H. W. Bush in 1988.
By comparison, eight vice presidents have assumed the highest office after presidential deaths, and one due to a resignation. That means, statistically speaking, JD Vance has a 100 percent higher chance of becoming the 48th president due to tragedy than through the electoral process.
Setting aside a “tragic promotion,” let’s review the data and circumstances surrounding the last incumbent vice president’s 1988 victory compared to what Vance might face 40 years later.
George H.W. Bush really did win Ronald Reagan’s “third term,” thanks to generally favorable economic conditions and little voter appetite for national change. The vice president won 426 Electoral College votes compared with 111 for Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, a lackluster liberal candidate. Bush’s landslide was the last time a presidential candidate won more than 400 electoral votes. Most notably, it was the third consecutive Republican landslide, a feat unlikely to be repeated.
Vice President Bush basked in Reagan’s high job approval rating, which averaged 53 percent in 1988. By comparison, Gallup reports that Trump’s second-term job approval average is 41 percent, trending down to 36 percent in December. The New York Times’ daily poll approval average is 43 percent, while RealClearPolitics, which usually trends more Trump-friendly, shows a 44 percent job approval. Thus, if Vance’s reality is a 10-point or greater job approval difference between Trump’s in 2028 and Reagan’s in 1988, Vance should have a tough time succeeding his boss. But 2028 is centuries away in political years. (Look at the first days of 2026!)
For now, Vance must help Trump keep the House and Senate in Republican hands by continually singing the president’s praises and playing the loyalty card. November’s outcome will be epic because “Trump cannot lose.” But if the GOP loses the House while keeping the Senate, Trump will still need a fall guy, and “MAGA heir” JD Vance could be that person.
No matter the outcome of the midterm elections, the 2028 general election will strategically loom over Vance. So, how does the vice president manage Trump for a historic win? He doesn’t. He can’t. Trump is unmanageable and will intervene like no incumbent in history. Then, if Trump stays well under a 50 percent job approval rating, Vance will need to break some ties, and political hell could break loose. The experiences of the last two vice presidents serve as examples of the perils that could await Vance.
First is Mike Pence. He was loyal to the core during Trump’s first term until the president demanded that Pence break the law on Jan. 6, 2021. But Pence stood up to his boss, stood tall for the law, and saved democracy. Trump and MAGA have marginalized him, but history will remember Vice President Pence as a hero.
Second is Kamala Harris. A month before the 2024 election, the vice president was asked, “If she would have done something differently from President Biden.” Harris, ever loyal to her unpopular boss, answered with a political kiss of death, “There is not a thing that comes to mind.” Predictably, Trump jumped on her answer, forcefully arguing that Harris would continue Biden’s failed policies.
Vance can look forward to that traditional vice presidential dilemma between loyalty and distance, which explains why only four incumbents have won the presidency in 250 years.
Myra Adams is a political and religious opinion writer who served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.
Tags Bush Dick Cheney Dick Cheney Donald Trump Donald Trump Donald Trump Jr. Donald Trump Jr. Franklin D. Roosevelt George H. W. Bush George H.W. Bush George H.W. Bush George W. Bush JD Vance JD Vance John Adams John N. Garner Kamala Harris Marco Rubio Marco Rubio Michael Dukakis Mike Pence Ronald Reagan Thomas Jefferson









