By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill – May 29, 2026

My mantra for November’s election night is to “expect the unexpected.”

Nationally, President Trump’s gloomy average job approval rating of 39 percent is linked to rising gas prices. Meanwhile, in his adopted home state of Florida, his approval is 43 percent, yet 70 percent of Floridians say they are “falling behind” the cost of living. These figures do not bode well for an easy Senate race, which is currently ranked “solid Republican” but likely to tighten.

In November 2024, Trump won Florida by a 13-point margin. Now, the appointed incumbent, Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), must appease the state’s irate electorate. Moody served as Florida’s attorney general until Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) tapped her in January 2025 to fill the Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio when named secretary of State.

Last July, Trump gifted the MAGA-loyal Moody an early endorsement to keep primary candidates at bay. As a Florida resident, I rarely hear Moody’s name in national, state or local news, but the president can always count on her support. Nonetheless, given anti-Trump fervor and a shocking recent poll, Moody’s fealty to Trump might be risky.

Enter Retired Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, running as a Democrat and ready to challenge Moody. Yesterday, a Politico Playbook headline read “The next Senate race to watch” after Vindman’s optimistic internal polling highlighted his strength and Moody’s weaknesses.

But first, the Aug. 18 Florida primary, where he is expected to defeat state Rep. Angie Nixon (D). With recent momentum from polling, Vindman has raised $8.1 million, compared with Moody’s $8.4 million.

Fox News reported that “recent polling suggests a competitive race between Moody and Vindman in right-leaning Florida.”

The Vindman versus Moody race pits a Trump “yes-woman” placeholder against an enemy of the president. Vindman suffered for what he believed was his patriotic duty. To his superiors, Vindman reported President Trump’s allegedly illegal demands made to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky while he served on the National Security Council staff at the White House.

Vindman, a Kyiv-born Ukrainian American citizen, was a decorated U.S. Army combat officer when Trump unceremoniously fired him in February 2020. Wearing his uniform at Trump’s first impeachment hearing, Vindman rose to fame as a whistleblower through his dramatic congressional testimony, only to lose his distinguished Army career.

Vindman’s unique story could resonate with voters as Trump slides toward authoritarian rule, unleashing the Justice Department to reward his allies and punish his enemies.

Florida is a red state, but Democrats have recently prevailed in several local races. For Vindman, the voter registration data is both challenging and hopeful.

There are 5.5 million registered Republicans — a misleading number since I am one of them, disenchanted with my former party. Democrat registration lags at 4 million, while the 3.3 million no-party-affiliation voters, along with 481,000 minor-party registrations, will be decisive.

About that voter registration and more, I contacted Senate candidate Vindman. He responded, writing, “I am running to represent all 23 million Floridians.” I was impressed that he campaigned in the Villages — a Republican Mecca for older white voters, often the first stop for Republican presidential and statewide candidates.

Vindman explained, “When I say we are not just going to blue districts, but ruby red, too, I mean it — it’s why I was in The Villages earlier this month, walking the line of people waiting to attend a Trump rally, connecting with registered Republicans who are also fed up with rising costs, corruption in D.C., and foolish wars of choice that are not just putting our service members’ lives at risk, but causing costs to skyrocket for families who are already struggling to get by.”

When a Democratic Senate candidate is connecting with registered Republicans at a Trump rally in The Villages, sound the MAGA alarms.

With Vindman’s new polling showing a statistically even race, I asked about Team Trump unleashing a shock-and-awe campaign against him and the worst message they could hammer home to Florida voters. He replied, “I am a 21-year combat veteran who has reported corruption at the highest level. Politicians have already thrown their worst at me, which is why Ashley Moody and her allies don’t faze me. I am focused on delivering for my community, which means lowering costs and fighting corruption.”

Vindman also mentioned that “while a sitting senator,” one of Moody’s “first acts was trading more than $2 million in stock while she had access to information only Congress has.” Vindman’s message strategically incorporates a recent poll in which 95 percent of Florida voters say, “Political corruption and unchecked money in politics is leading to higher costs.”

Wounded by an IED during the Iraq War, Vindman has faced a lifetime of challenges, especially on the national stage. In 2023, Vindman moved his family to Florida and is now preparing for battle against Moody and Team Trump.

Vindman is a fearless Trump enemy, so watch this race and expect the unexpected.

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.