politics

Why Kamala is more likely than Hillary was to be the first female president


By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill: Sept. 27, 2024

What was the first presidential election year when women voters surpassed men as a percentage of the electorate?

The answer is 1984. In that year, the electorate was 53 percent female and 47 percent male. That year, President Ronald Reagan and Vice President George H. W. Bush defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale and Rep. Geraldine Ferraro in a historic landslide. Four years earlier, in Reagan’s 1980 landslide, the electorate had been 51 percent men and 49 percent women. 

Since 1984, women have decisively outvoted men in every presidential election. Forty years later, unique social factors could motivate a record number of women to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris. But before discussing those factors, let’s review female voting data from the last two presidential elections, showing how Harris could win where Hillary Clinton lost.

Consider the 2020 election. Men were 48 percent of the electorate, and women were 52 percent, among whom Biden-Harris won by a 15-point margin. On Monday, an NBC News poll found Harris leading among women by 19 points. Trump’s advantage with men was 12 points.

Given that a larger turnout usually translates into more female voters, the vice president’s strength with women could be her path to victory if the electorate’s female voter turnout exceeds the four-point advantage of 2020.

Interestingly, in 2016, the electorate’s gender composition was the same as in 2020, with women casting 52 percent of the votes. However, of that 52 percent female electorate, Hillary Clinton won only 54 percent, compared to 57 percent for Joe Biden in 2020.

Could Harris renew Obama’s coalition with a female turnout that mirrors his 2008 and 2012 victories? In those elections, the electorate was 53 percent women and 47 percent men, a six-point difference. (Women had the most influence in 2004, when George W. Bush was reelected with women comprising 54 percent of voters.)  

Let’s turn to the “unique social factors” that might benefit Harris and stimulate record-breaking female turnout listed by uniqueness and not political importance.

First, Harris’s campaign doesn’t seem to be playing up the prospect of her becoming the first female president. Is that intentional? Maybe. Women know that a Harris victory would be historic, but most are not casting their vote because she is a woman. Today’s circumstances feel light years from Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, when she was deliberately running to be the “first woman president” and “breaking the glass ceiling” and made it clear. 

Is the novelty of “President Harris” being downplayed because she has been the incumbent Vice President Harris since January 2021? Or is it because Harris’s presidential nomination was a welcome surprise alternative to the dreaded Trump-Biden rematch, and she happens to be a woman?

I can only guess why this historic first seems so understated on the campaign trail. Nonetheless, if Harris wins, her sex will be the headline, with women celebrating in the streets 104 years after receiving the right to vote.

Second, mothers, teachers and anyone involved in raising children are keenly aware of role-models and the influence of celebrities. Hence the question, “Is Donald Trump a role model for your children or students?” And also, “Is Kamala Harris a better role model than Trump?” Good or bad, the president is a role model by default.

A third potential Harris advantage is female intuition. Women voters notice that Melania Trump has not been out and about supporting her husband’s campaign. Her absence speaks volumes about his controversial character.

Instead, the former first lady has been promoting her “Melania” book, intentionally drawing attention to and defending her decades-old nude modeling career. Moreover, the book release date is October 8, a curious time if it generates bad press or flops.

The real eye-opener is that nowhere on MelaniaTrump.com is Donald Trump mentioned or pictured.

No polls will quantify Melania as an obstacle to Trump’s campaign, but women voters do think about who will be first lady or first gentleman and the loving support that person offers the president.

Fourth, where is Ivanka? Trump’s favorite offspring has disappeared from the campaign trail. Again, women notice abnormal family dynamics when making voting decisions.

Meanwhile, Trump campaigns with RNC co-chair and daughter-in-law Lara Trump, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) and Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) to attract female voters.

Recently, much attention was paid to Trump palling around with the controversial Laura Loomer, who flaunted their relationship, posting suggestive photos and headline-making videos. But Loomer has been sidelined after her toxic high profile created a short-lived MAGA civil war.

Fifth, another campaign phenomenon that could drive female turnout for Harris is the Trump campaign appearing to denigrate women who don’t have biological children. Millions of stepmothers and women who are childless by choice were deeply offended.

Sixth, abortion is a sacred life-issue turned into a political message war. Trump has been shifting his position leftward (depending on the audience) but continues to make outlandish abortion-related paternalistic statements, for example, telling women, “I am your protector.”

Harris, a long-time champion of abortion rights, has branded and positioned abortion as representing freedom, personal rights, health care and an example of government interference. The 2024 presidential election is the first since the 2022 Supreme Court Dobbs ruling, which could become a monumental driver of female turnout on both sides of this passionate issue.

In the voting booth, women consider the economy, inflation, immigration and abortion as the most critical issues in their choice between Trump and Harris. But don’t underestimate women’s intuition about family, character and the historical nature of Harris’s candidacy, all of which could generate a surprise record-breaking female turnout that the polls are not detecting.

Myra Adams is an opinion writer who served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.

Tags Geraldine Ferraro  Hillary Clinton  Kamala Harris  Melania Trump Ronald Reagan  Walter Mondale

4 reasons this year’s presidential election could blow up America as we know it


By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill: May 10, 2024

During every modern presidential election cycle, pundits and experts have claimed the current election is “the most consequential” — whether it be “in my lifetime,” “in this century” or “since World War II.”

Thankfully, America survived all of those contests and often thrived after a course correction or pendulum swing away from the loser. Looking back, those “most consequential” presidential elections have always seemed tame compared to the next one.

But today, when it comes to 2024, “most consequential” may be tragically understated. The extreme polarization in today’s body politic rivals that of the 1860 presidential election won by Abraham Lincoln, whose inauguration was followed by the start of the Civil War just five weeks later.

Like 1860, the 2024 presidential election is fraught with explosive constitutional and institutional issues potentially threatening America’s founding principles. Millions of Americans believe that the preservation of democracy is indirectly on the ballot. So, too, is the potential consolidation of power in an executive branch poised to unbalance tri-equal power shared with the legislative and judicial branches of government.

The perception of an existential crisis for the U.S. is only enhanced by the blockbuster movie “Civil War” and a recent poll that inspired the screaming Drudge Report headline: “41 percent see Civil War ll on the horizon.”

Last month, a Pew Research Center survey found that half of registered voters would prefer replacing both Trump and Biden on the ballot. Pew’s data reinforced a March YouGov/ Yahoo News poll, in which 53 percent of voters chose a combination of dread, exhaustion or depression to describe their feelings about the 2024 rematch.

This unpopular historic Biden-Trump rematch unnerves most Americans paying attention, even many of their supporters. Whoever wins, half the nation will be disgusted, angry, pessimistic and fearful of the future, wondering how America can endure with “that guy” as president for a second term.

And four additional “minefield” issues could explode during the campaign’s final six months or before the 2025 inauguration, further exacerbating that pessimism.

1. The first pertains to whether the loser will accept the outcome. Trump has continually planted seeds for potential unrest, even predicting the end of democracy if he loses. On CNN in May 2023, Trump qualified his acceptance of the 2024 results by saying, “If I think it’s an honest election, I would be honored to.”

Recently, Trump doubled down on that qualifier. During a Milwaukee Journal Sentinel interview, he said, “If everything’s honest, I’d gladly accept the results,” adding, “If it’s not, you have to fight for the right of the country.” Trump has yet to explain that “fight” statement — perceived as a “dog whistle” for encouraging political violence — nor defined his criteria for “everything’s honest.” This is a warning.

After numerous court decisions and recounts, Trump still believes the 2020 election was stolen, making it a test of loyalty. Now, it appears not committing to accepting the 2024 results is a litmus test for his vice-presidential nominee.

If Trump loses on Nov. 5, will he again try to subvert democracy as he allegedly did on Jan. 6, 2021, for which he has been indicted? A potential minefield surrounds your voting booth.

2. America’s smooth presidential transition has always shown the world why we are a beacon of freedom and democracy, even after contentious or close elections. This is why the events of Jan. 6, 2021, unnerved our allies and delighted our enemies. That means on Jan. 20, 2025, America must prove the last transition was an aberration. A repeat of such violence could create a national security situation for our enemies to exploit.

3. In 2024, several courtrooms sit atop political minefields. Trump’s Jan. 6 trial and the Mar-a-Lago documents case are now on hold. America’s judicial system is built on faith and trust that “no person is above the law.” Nonetheless, what could be construed as a double travesty of delayed federal justice has been orchestrated by (some would say) a Trump-friendly Supreme Court and Trump-appointed Florida U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon. Delays by both courts could ensure that neither Trump’s Jan. 6-related trial nor the Mar-a-Lago documents case trial are held before Election Day.

Sixty-four percent of Americans want the Jan. 6 trial to occur sooner. But several conservative Supreme Court justices appear much more interested in how their ruling would affect future presidents’ claims of immunity than they are about Trump’s specific claims about his actions Jan. 6. If voters are denied a verdict on whether Trump is guilty of trying to overturn the 2020 election to remain in power, there could be a voter backlash.

This week, Cannon postponed indefinitely Trump’s 37-count indictment for refusing to return top secret government documents allegedly removed from the White House. Reacting to that news, former Trump White House attorney Ty Cobb called Cannon’s decision “really inexplicable” and “tragic.”

4. The “battleground states presidential election” has reached a tipping point: A 2023 Pew Research Study found that 65 percent of American adults favor a nationwide popular vote to elect the president. Six battleground states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina) will totally dominate Biden’s and Trump’s campaign to win 270 Electoral College votes, severely warping where they spend time and money. An angry sentiment that “my vote doesn’t count” has long been growing among Americans who live outside of presidentially relevant states.

If Trump or Biden wins only the unpopular Electoral College but loses the popular vote — as Trump did in 2016 — Civil War-level outrage could result.

Donald Trump would be denied a federal security clearance if he tried to get one


By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill: April 12, 2024

Our intelligence services are consumed with battling a new “Axis of Evil.” The updated phrase, first coined in 2002, now refers to Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. This powerful authoritarian alliance is determined to meddle in elections, launch cyberattacks, destabilize and wage wars against America and its allied democracies around the world.

In this context, consider the likelihood that, starting next Jan. 20, sensitive secrets will be viewed by the most notorious national security risk living outside a federal penitentiary.

It sounds like a Hollywood script, but our spy services must contend with this real-life drama if Donald Trump is elected president once again.

President Biden’s campaign and those who served in Trump’s administration must convey to voters that Trump himself represents a national security risk with severe domestic and global ramifications. Even before November’s election, in mid-July 2024, after Trump is officially nominated at the Republican National Convention, he will be entitled to receive intelligence briefings that Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) hopes will be “dumbed down.” Schiff is reportedly “concerned about whether Trump could share the information.”

Intelligence agencies were always concerned and took necessary precautions during Trump’s presidency. “Officials were even more cautious about what information they provided Mr. Trump because some saw the president himself as a security risk,” the New York Times reported in 2022, quoting CIA counterintelligence official Douglas London.

That sentiment harkens back to January 2017, when an American intelligence official reportedly warned Israeli officials “that American intelligence agencies believed Russia had ‘leverages of pressure’ over President Donald Trump….The [American] official warned Israel to ‘be careful’ once Trump was inaugurated, adding that it was possible sensitive information shared with the White House and the National Security Council could be leaked to Russians.” Four months later, it actually happened.

If the election were held today, former President Trump would likely win. For the intel community, that means additional complications and distractions as they fight the Axis of Evil against threats that some believe Trump’s victory would accelerate.

This week, former CIA director John Brennan said that if elected, Trump “would give Vladimir Putin the green light to practically swallow Ukraine,” since Trump “can reduce or even stop financial and military aid to the government in Kyiv.” 

To date, Trump’s allies, such as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga), have effectively blocked Ukraine aid. Last month, after Hungarian President Viktor Orbán met with Trump, Orbán told state television that Trump had said he “will not give a penny into the Ukraine-Russia war and therefore the war will end.” Brennan believes “that will encourage Putin to look hungrily at the rest of Europe.”

Trump’s enigmatic and decades-long Russia connection continues to amaze. NATO is taking extra precautions now that Trump has said Russia should be able to do “whatever the hell they want” to NATO members who don’t meet their defense spending targets.

The good news for Trump is that U.S. presidents don’t need security clearances. In November 2016, if not for Trump’s “President-elect” title, “citizen” Trump would have been denied a security clearance due to his extensive long-term business dealings with Russian oligarchs. In 2008, Donald Trump Jr. famously said, “Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets,” and, “We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia.”

No wonder CIA officials saw President Trump “as a security risk.” For anyone not named Trump or Jared Kushner, the exhaustive process for obtaining a security clearance begins with the following nine-point list: “Loyalty to the United States, strength of character, trustworthiness, honesty, reliability, discretion, and soundness of judgment.” Additionally, “We also make sure you: Are free from conflicting allegiances to other countries. Are not a potential risk for blackmail. Will abide by regulations governing the use, handling, and protection of sensitive information.”

In other words, the next likely commander in chief would probably flunk most of the security criteria required of those who will brief him.

The last listed item, “handling and protecting sensitive information,” is a well-documented Trump violation. There are photos of document pieces flushed down his White House toilet. Staffers were tasked with taping together documents that Trump had ripped and discarded. In 2019, Trump tweeted a sensitive Iranian photo, as if he believed it was his personal property.

Such thinking and behavior are the reason Trump has been charged with a 32-count indictment for violating the Espionage Act. Trump allegedly moved boxes of documents, some with the highest classification, to his Mar-a-Lago residence and refused to return them as required by law. (A trial date has yet to be set.)

Topping the list of security clearance criteria is “loyalty to the United States.” Does Trump place loyalty to himself above the nation, given his encouragement of supporters to prevent certification of a lawful election on Jan. 6, 2021, for which Trump has also been indicted? What is national loyalty if not a willingness to abide by the Constitution?

Another clearance question asks if one is “free from conflicting allegiances to other countries.” What gets perhaps less attention than Putin is Trump’s active, lucrative business relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the prince’s LIV Golf tournaments, some hosted at Trump courses.

Liz Peek recently asked whether bin Salman might sabotage Joe Biden’s reelection bid by cutting oil production thus raising prices, which would have adverse ripple effects on the U.S. economy. Indeed, the CIA will be watching the Trump-bin Salman connections, which would likely disqualify anyone from obtaining a federal security clearance.  

If Trump is elected, the intel community will be fighting the Axis of Evil while reporting to a president known as a security risk, and who habitually disregards intelligence that fails to mesh with or interferes with his personal interests. Flush goes the White House toilet and possibly the nation.

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.TAGS 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DONALD TRUMP DONALD TRUMP JR. JAN. 6 CAPITOL RIOT PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN RUSSIA SAUDI ARABIA

Trump: At war with America 


By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill Feb. 16, 2024

For the third time in a row, former President Donald Trump is expected to win the Republican nomination. His chances of becoming the 47th president are no worse than 50-50. Not only is President Biden a weak incumbent, but Trump appears to have the momentum and the lead in most of the key swing states.

Never in our nation’s history has a former president been at war with America. But, propelled by political winds, Trump has made himself a warrior-candidate, uniquely accepted by half of voters in a nation at civil war-levels of polarization, coupled with a general distrust of government amidst signs of decline.

On the primary campaign trail, Trump foments rage among his followers. In his Jan. 22 New Hampshire primary victory speech, he shouted his time-tested pronouncement: “This country has gone to hell, this country has gone to hell.”

War is hell, and Trump’s fans believe that only he has the blood and guts, energy, strength, and policies to save America.

Trump’s aggressive negativity is a sharp contrast with the traditional norms of campaign communication, a vast deviation from Ronald Reagan’s sunny optimism. His “Morning in America” television commercial amid his 1984 landslide reelection, clashes sharply with another quintessential Trumpian quote: “We’re going to bring our country back. With your vote, you’re going to put crooked Joe and his protectors on notice that we are coming in November. We’re coming to take over the beautiful, beautiful White House, and we’re going to run the country the way it’s supposed to be run, not the way it’s been.”

Not only does “General” Trump promise “to bring our country back” (from hell, one presumes), but he plans to “take over” the White House. No American presidential candidate has ever promised a “takeover” with a Trump-loyal army-in-waiting named Project 2025.

Also present on Trump’s New Hampshire victory stage was Vivek Ramaswamy, basking in the afterglow of his failed campaign. The former primary candidate has quickly morphed into Trump’s considerably more articulate sidekick. Ramaswamy encapsulated the 45th president’s 2024 “at-war” theme. “We are in the middle of a war in this country,” he said. “It’s not between black and white or even between most Democrats and Republicans. It is between those of us who love this country and a fringe minority who hates the United States of America and what we stand for, between the permanent state and the everyday citizen.”

Here’s an opposing view: “We are in the middle of a war in this country,” that Trump is waging against any person, celebrity, group, political party, branch of government, department, agency, institution, body of law, organization, or established process he deems to be “unfair” or standing between his goal of total domination. 

That list includes current and former Republican members of Congress, Trump administration cabinet officials, retired four-star generals, and the media, for consistently generating “fake news,” except when the coverage is favorable to him.

Trump’s lies and exaggerations are repeated so often that one-third of American ears have normalized his rantings as truth. Hence, Trump’s war will continue to thrive while his well-oiled multi-platform propaganda and fear machines are operational 24/7, to raise money and churn out promises that double as battle plans.

One controversial battle plan Trump announced during his Veteran’s Day message: to “root out the Communists, Marxists, Fascists, and Radical Left Thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country, lie, steal, and cheat on elections, and will do anything possible, whether legally or illegally, to destroy America, and the American Dream.”

One of the most effective weapons in Trump’s strategic arsenal is the 38 percent of Americans who believe that Biden’s 2020 election was illegitimate — “stolen,” in Trump’s warring words.

Most often, Trump fires artillery about how the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol would have turned out differently, had Vice President Mike Pence “done his job” refusing to certify the votes of the Electoral College. That explains why Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Sen. J..D Vance (R-Ohio), perhaps hoping to be named Trump’s running mate, recently stated they would have taken the action that Pence lawfully refused.

Meanwhile, planting political landmines on the campaign trail, Trump vows to rescue the Jan. 6 “hostages” with pardons. (After he finishes being dictator on day one?) Then and always, Trump uses his sympathy weapon, playing the “victim” card with his 91 felony counts, since Biden has weaponized the Justice Department against him.

Last year, the former president officially declared war, unveiling his political manifesto at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), when he said: “I am your warrior, I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.” CPAC 2024 is next week, so listen as Trump throws fiery new verbal daggers to motivate the assembly of foot soldiers.

Another battlefront is an email blast I have somehow started to receive with a “Trump War” subject line, highlighted by a red siren mimicking the Drudge Report’s news alerts. “Trump War” points to an all-headline, Trump-friendly clone of Drudge’s famous 1990s-era vintage format — proving that imitation is the greatest form of flattery.   

“General” Trump and his army are psyched to fight and torpedo any legislation Trump fears could help Biden. This busy week, the general’s sword hangs over House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) refusal to hold a floor vote for Ukraine and Israel military aid. Also, Trump “attacked” NATO and announced plans to conquer the Republican National Committee.

“I am really good at war,” Trump boasted in April 2016. That comes from a man who never wore the uniform but has readily ridiculed those who have. Undeniably, Trump is at war, and if victorious, anyone not in lockstep could become collateral damage. 

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.TAGS 

2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DONALD TRUMP JOE BIDEN PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN

Five reasons American decline appears irreversible


By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill – Jan. 19, 2024

Republican presidential candidates often warn that America is declining, and that only they can stop its demise. Former President Donald Trump believes that the national decline halted during his term in office and will stop again when he is reelected.

But five unmistakable signs of American decline have been gathering momentum for decades, through both Republican and Democratic administrations. No president or party can solve these chronically intertwined, deep-rooted, systemic economic, political, societal and cultural problems. Officials can only manage the decline and mitigate the impact.

1. Uncontrollable U.S. Debt: The U.S. Debt Clock displays the inevitability of American decline — a “ticking time bomb” of data and financial evidence — especially the following three.

The U.S. government’s total unfunded liabilities — the combined amount of payments promised without funds to recipients of Social Security, Medicare, federal employee pensions, veterans’ benefits and federal debt held by the public — stand at $212 trillion, and are rapidly increasing. For context, that number was just $122 trillion as recently as 2019 and is projected by the Debt Clock to reach $288.9 trillion by 2028.

That is an unimaginable amount of money — more than a quarter of a quadrillion dollars. When or if the government is forced to reduce payments, pensions or services to hold things together, or to default on its debt, the consequences will be brutal.

The second ticking bomb is the U.S. debt. At $34 trillion, it has increased more than six-fold from $5.6 trillion in 2000. Of that $34 trillion, $731 billion has been accumulated through interest payments — the fourth-highest annual U.S. budget item. (If you are keeping score, the third-highest is $851 billion for Defense, exceeded by Social Security at $1.39 trillion and topped by Medicare-Medicaid at $1.72 trillion.)

Like an irresponsible credit card user, the federal government is perpetually borrowing more money to make the interest payments as they come due. And the interest payments on the newly refinanced debt will be much higher due to recent and significant rate-hikes.

Finally, the $34 trillion national debt, as a percentage of the nation’s $27.8 trillion economy entails a debt-to-GDP ratio of 122.30 percent, headed to 150 percent by 2028. That’s up from 56 percent in 2000 and 36 percent in 1980. Don’t expect any meaningful discussions or solutions from either party about these three “bombs” as their timers tick away.

2. Low student achievement: If our nation is to dig itself out of that harrowing debt trap, it will need successive generations of superstar students, armed with skills and creativity. Someday, they will invent and harness technologies to manufacture state-of-the-art products and related services, fueling an economic boom that boosts the GDP.

Unfortunately, the “Nation’s Report Card” does not hint at such an optimistic future. The National Assessment of Educational Progress, a congressionally mandated Education Department program that has assessed students since 1969, finds that the only 29 percent of fourth graders and 20 percent of eighth graders are even proficient in math. Only 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively, are “advanced” at those levels.

Overall achievement had decreased in both reading and math compared to the already-disappointing numbers of 2019. So both before and after COVID, our education system appears to be losing the fight against national decline.

3. Increasing income and wealth inequality: Sub-par educational achievement will probably only increase the gap between the rich and poor. Moreover, it will shrink the once-vibrant middle class — the pride of post-war America.

Pew Research, conflating the ideas of “middle class” and “middle income,” recently found this vital group to have shrunk from 61 percent of households in 1971 to just 50 percent in 2021. Although a net increase in upper-income households accounted for most of this net decline of the middle class, the latter are still bringing in a disproportionately reduced percentage of the nation’s total income — down from 62 percent in 1971 to just 42 percent in 2021.

A clearer warning sign is the decrease in homeownership, long a benchmark of middle-class status, financial stability, and wealth-building. That is another reason the gap between rich and poor could keep widening as the government spends extra billions to fight poverty, contributing further to out-of-control debt and inevitable national decline.

4. Loss of American identity and patriotism: The once-great American “melting pot” is an outdated concept for many Americans. Traditionally, immigrants with different languages and cultures assimilated and became distinctly American. The current trend is toward a heterogeneous culture.

Meanwhile, among non-white youth, adopting an American identity and even saluting the flag is considered “nationalistic,” representing an “old America” — predominately white, Christian, and inherently unequal.

Patriotism has declined, especially among more ethnically diverse 18 to 34-year-olds. That brings us to our rapidly changing population. No modern nation has ever experienced such dramatic demographic change, and already-increasing racial tensions could vastly accelerate, hastening national decline.

5. Widespread belief that our political system is broken: Americans’ disdain for the political system has been captured in numerous polls, showing voters are dissatisfied with a potential Biden-Trump rematch — “a uniquely horrible choice,” as the headline quote from one voter put it.

Team Trump is certain that only the former president can preserve democracy, save the nation from the southern border “invasion,” and stop President Biden’s “corruption,” along with the “weaponization” of his Justice Department.

Conversely, Democrats believe Biden will save democracy and the country from Trump, who will otherwise be an authoritarian ruler, shredding the Constitution.

So the political system is at least broken enough to lock in two flawed, unpopular candidates well past their prime and — along with all of the above — set America on a declining glide-path.

Let’s hope that whatever remains of American exceptionalism will triumph over and reverse the forces of decline.

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.TAGS DONALD TRUMP NATIONAL DEBT STUDENT PERFORMANCE

The most important ‘what-ifs’ of 2024


By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill – Dec. 22, 2023

Raise your hand if you are dreading 2024. Keep it up if you believe it will be more traumatic than 2023.

As I was writing this piece, the news broke that the Colorado Supreme Court had ruled former President Trump is ineligible to appear on the 2024 presidential ballot, citing the Constitution’s 14th Amendment insurrection clause.

This unprecedented ruling, likely headed to the Supreme Court, illustrates how alarming, destructive, distressing events and circumstances from 2023 will continue unabated or conclude with more polarizing or dangerous consequences. Thus, 2024 could rank among the most harrowing and catastrophic in national and world history based on the following 11 “what if” questions.

1. What if a barrage of AI-generated content and social media from domestic and foreign players blur presidential campaign messaging, so that voters don’t know what is real or fake?

In April, a member of Congress stated that Russia, China and Iran prefer Trump to win over President Biden. If true, consider a chilling report from the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center, entitled “Protecting Election 2024 from foreign malign influence.” Microsoft warns that a vast operation will target and manipulate voters through extensive foreign AI, cyber, website disinformation and social media. Be aware: A toxic stew of nefarious foreign players will try to influence your vote.

2. What if House Republicans vote to impeach President Biden?

Last week’s party-line vote approved an impeachment inquiry against President Biden. By spring, if House Speaker Johnson counts enough Republican votes to pass articles of impeachment, our nation will experience its first back-to-back impeachments against successive presidents.

Democrats consider this GOP impeachment effort political theatre directed by Donald Trump. Therefore, Biden could have a unique opportunity to show strength, fight back and appeal to voters who think he is too old. And like Trump, Biden could count on an acquittal after his Senate trial.

Furthermore, what if House GOP leaders find insufficient evidence to move forward with articles of impeachment or are short of votes to impeach? Call that a politically embarrassing debacle, perhaps followed by a face-saving “Let the voters decide.” Such a pro-democracy-sounding spin message could be the end-game for this “revenge impeachment.” Undoubtedly, Trump would be furious if Biden were not impeached and lash out at the “weak” House leadership.

3. What if Biden drops out?

That unlikely but not implausible scenario would be the political equivalent of a nuclear bomb, changing the course of American history. Vice President Kamala Harris would be tough to dethrone, but unpopular and potentially beatable by Trump.

4. What if the Supreme Court rules that Trump has presidential immunity and can not stand trial on Jan. 6-related charges?

Such a ruling would be a constitutional shock to our nation and damaging to the Supreme Court’s reputation. According to George Washington University law professor Paul Schiff Berman, granting Trump immunity for criminal action while in office “goes more to the heart of whether the president is a president or a king.”

In 2024, there is no “what if,” only a series of how Trump-related Supreme Court rulings will impact and influence the presidential election.

5. What if Trump is convicted of a felony before November’s election, and polls show he still defeats Biden?

Fortunately for Trump, the Constitution does not state that a criminal conviction makes one ineligible to hold the nation’s highest office. Therefore, again, “Let the voters decide” resolves that question.

6. What if the economy keeps improving and growing with a strong stock market while inflation, interest rates and unemployment all trend lower?  

Would a strong economy translate into higher job approval for President Biden? Not necessarily. If the cost of living is still perceived as too high and the southern border immigration crisis is uncontrollable, Biden could well become a one-term president even amid a recovery.

Recently, Trump unveiled his new campaign slogan: “Better Off With Trump.” It is a personal and narcissistic twist on the traditional presidential election question: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” Theoretically, the answer should be “yes,” since the pandemic began in 2020. Nonetheless, Trump’s communication machine and savvy showmanship skills are light years beyond Biden’s, and more voters will be thinking “No.”

7. What if Trump’s campaign rhetoric continues to sound authoritarian as he leads Biden in the polls?

The more Trump quotes his favorite dictators, the more his unorthodox speech becomes normalized and acceptable to voters. At last weekend’s New Hampshire rally, Trump unabashedly said: “Even Vladimir Putin says that Biden’s — and this is a quote — ‘politically motivated persecution of his political rival is very good for Russia, because it shows the rottenness of the American political system, which cannot pretend to teach others about democracy.’”

Trump is brilliantly employing political jujutsu with all-caps campaign signs proclaiming that “BIDEN ATTACKS DEMOCRACY.” Voters cheer because Trump is their strong man who promises, “We’re going to bring our country back from hell. It’s in hell.”

8. What if the U.S. is drawn into a Middle East war against Iran-backed groups that continue to provoke U.S. naval ships and disrupt international commercial shipping?

Speaking of hell… The Houthis are warning that their attacks will continue. How will the U.S. and its allies stop this naval and merchant ship crisis without further escalation?

9. What if, without U.S. aid, Ukraine falls to Russia?

Putin’s mission is to reconstitute the Soviet empire. If the U.S. abandons Ukraine, we will pay more later and show the world that the U.S. is an unreliable ally.

10. What if war explodes on three fronts?

What if China takes advantage of the distractions in the Middle East and Ukraine to invade Taiwan? Chinese President Xi recently warned Biden that timing is the only question.

11. What if there is a terrorist attack in the U.S., and the perpetrators(s) enter over the southern border?

According to the U.S. Border Patrol Terrorist Screening Dataset, this is an increasing threat. Should it happen, say hello to President Donald J. Trump. But no worries, He will only be a “dictator on day one.”

Potentially, 2024 will rival the domestic upheaval of 1968 and the international threats of 1939. Brace yourself for double chaos.

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.

TAGS 2024 DONALD TRUMP JOE BIDEN KAMALA HARRIS PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN