By Myra Adams – The Hill contributor

MYRA’S COMPLETE ARCHIVE IS HERE

Reposted from The Hill: Oct. 10, 2025

A person carrying an umbrella walks past the National Debt Clock, Monday, April 7, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)

My pessimistic view of our nation’s future triggered me to write “Five reasons American decline appears irreversible” in January 2024. That rambunctious presidential election year now feels like ancient history. Twenty-one months later, new data and events have accelerated the decline, prompting this update. As before, we begin with the key reason.

1. Uncontrollable U.S. debt

According to the U.S. Debt Clock in mid-January 2024, the national debt stood at $34 trillion. That debt surpassed the $27.8 trillion gross domestic product, resulting in an irresponsible debt-to-GDP ratio of 122.30 percent. As of today, the national debt has increased to $37.8 trillion, while the GDP has grown to $30.3 trillion, for an alarming debt-to-GDP ratio of 124.84 percent.

In June, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke optimistically about “growing our way out of debt,” saying, “If the economy grows faster than the debt, we stabilize the country.” But “if” was a fantasy. Based on current trends, the Debt Clock predicts that by 2029, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio will be 141 percent.

Therefore, according to Bessent’s philosophy, our nation is destabilizing rapidly as interest payments on the national debt consume an ever-increasing share of the U.S. budget. Interest now exceeds $1 trillion, making it the government’s third-largest expense. Debt service has even surpassed the defense budget, a notable shift from January 2024, when interest on the national debt was the fourth-largest budget item.

2. Low student achievement

To offset the debt, robust economic growth must be driven by the next generation of educated, intelligent workers. However, America’s future is clouded by an epidemic of student underachievement.

In my January 2024 piece, I referenced the 2022 National Report Card, which found that only 29 percent of fourth-graders and 20 percent of eighth-graders were proficient in math. COVID was partially blamed, but scores were decreasing well before the pandemic closed schools and forced kids to learn online.

Last month, the 2024 National Report Card revealed 45 percent of high school seniors scored below “basic” competency in math — the lowest since 2005. Reading scores were worse, but math aptitude is especially troubling since it translates to high-tech innovation, which drives economic growth.

Sadly, our nation has fallen behind. In 2022, America’s 15-year-olds ranked 34th worldwide in math, science and reading, with a score of 465 on PISA (Program for International Student Assessment), a test conducted every three years. Singapore scored the highest with 575, followed by China at 552. Another PISA test is underway, with scores expected to be released next year.

In a technology-dominated world, low U.S. achievement necessitates a reliance on skilled foreign workers, now exacerbated by the Trump administration’s high-cost-to-work anti-immigrant policies. Furthermore, abysmal student scores perpetuate the next irreversible sign of decline. Read more..